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Nature of Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy

  • Junhee Lee
  • Joonhyuk Song

We investigate the nature of oil price shocks to the Korean economy in recent years and find that the recent hike in oil price is induced by the increase in oil demand in contrast to the previous years when oil price run-up is mostly from supply disruptions. We also study how monetary responses to oil price shocks affect economic stability and find that an accommodative policy yields more stable outcomes.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15306.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15306
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  1. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
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  3. Timothy Cogley, 1998. "A simple adaptive measure of core inflation," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  5. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  10. Martin Bodenstein & Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy with distinct core and headline inflation rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 941, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  12. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
  13. Robert M. Solow, 1980. "What to Do (Macroeconomically) When OPEC Comes," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 249-267 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
  15. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
  16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Hui Guo & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2005. "Oil price volatility and U.S. macroeconomic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 669-84.
  18. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
  19. Wouter J. Den Haan, 1996. "The Comovements Between Real Activity and Prices at Different Business Cycle Frequencies," NBER Working Papers 5553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
  21. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
  22. Calista Cheung, 2009. "Are Commodity Prices Useful Leading Indicators of Inflation?," Discussion Papers 09-5, Bank of Canada.
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