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Nature of Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy

  • Junhee Lee
  • Joonhyuk Song

We investigate the nature of oil price shocks to the Korean economy in recent years and find that the recent hike in oil price is induced by the increase in oil demand in contrast to the previous years when oil price run-up is mostly from supply disruptions. We also study how monetary responses to oil price shocks affect economic stability and find that an accommodative policy yields more stable outcomes.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15306.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15306
Note: ME
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  1. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2007. "Taylor rules with headline inflation: a bad idea," Working Paper 2007-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
  3. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
  4. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Hui Guo & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2005. "Oil price volatility and U.S. macroeconomic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 669-84.
  6. Calista Cheung, 2009. "Are Commodity Prices Useful Leading Indicators of Inflation?," Discussion Papers 09-5, Bank of Canada.
  7. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
  8. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
  9. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
  10. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
  12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy with distinct core and headline inflation rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S18-S33, October.
  14. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
  15. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  16. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
  17. Robert Rich & Charles Steindel, 2005. "A review of core inflation and an evaluation of its measures," Staff Reports 236, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  18. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
  19. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
  20. Robert M. Solow, 1980. "What to Do (Macroeconomically) When OPEC Comes," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 249-267 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Wouter J. Den Haan, 1996. "The Comovements Between Real Activity and Prices at Different Business Cycle Frequencies," NBER Working Papers 5553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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