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Taylor rules with headline inflation: a bad idea

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  • Rajeev Dhawan
  • Karsten Jeske

Abstract

Should a central bank accommodate energy price shocks? Should the central bank use core inflation or headline inflation with the volatile energy component in its Taylor rule? To answer these questions, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with energy use, durable goods, and nominal rigidities to study the effects of an energy price shock and its impact on the macroeconomy when the central bank follows a Taylor rule. We then study how the economy performs under alternative parameterizations of the rule with different weights on headline and core inflation after an increase in the energy price. Our simulation results indicate that a central bank using core inflation in its Taylor rule does better than one using headline inflation because the output drop is less severe. In general, we show that the lower the weight on energy price inflation in the Taylor rule, the impact of an energy price increase on gross domestic product and inflation is also lower.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2007. "Taylor rules with headline inflation: a bad idea," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2007-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    2. Federico di Pace, 2008. "Revisiting the Comovement Puzzle: the Input-Output Structure as an Additional Solution," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0807, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    3. Barsky, Robert & Boehm, Christoph E. & House, Christopher L. & Kimball, Miles, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Durable Goods," Working Paper Series WP-2016-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    4. Jean Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2011. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-39, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Anna Kormilitsina, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 199-223, January.
    6. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy with distinct core and headline inflation rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 18-33, October.
    7. Romain Duval & Lukas Vogel, 2012. "How Do Nominal and Real Rigidities Interact? A Tale of the Second Best," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1455-1474, October.
    8. Allegret, Jean Pierre & Benkhodja, Mohamed Tahar, 2015. "External shocks and monetary policy in an oil exporting economy (Algeria)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 652-667.
    9. Becker, Robert A. & Borissov, Kirill & Dubey, Ram Sewak, 2015. "Ramsey equilibrium with liberal borrowing," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 296-304.
    10. Plante, Michael, 2014. "How should monetary policy respond to changes in the relative price of oil? Considering supply and demand shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-19.
    11. Michael Plante, 2009. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Shocks in Oil Importing Low Income Countries," Caepr Working Papers 2009-017 Classification-O, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    12. James B. Bullard, 2011. "Measuring inflation: the core is rotten," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue July, pages 223-234.
    13. Jean‐Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, February.
    14. Romain Duval & Lukas Vogel, 2008. "Oil Price Shocks, Rigidities and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: Some Lessons from a New Keynesian Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 603, OECD Publishing.
    15. Michael Plante, 2009. "Exchange Rates, Oil Price Shocks, and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Traded and Non-Traded Goods," Caepr Working Papers 2009-016 Classification-F, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    16. Junhee Lee & Joonhyuk Song, 2009. "Nature of Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 15306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 470-504, December.

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