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Impact of low oil prices on oil exporting countries

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Abstract

The report describes the importance of oil for oil exporting countries and analyses the potential economic effects that current low oil prices may have in their economy and political stability. Firstly, the report describes the main drivers that have led to the present low oil prices. Secondly, descriptive statistics are employed to show the exposure of the main oil exporting countries to the oil price, where GDP and government revenue is found to be closely correlated to the oil price. In general, several Sub-Saharan African and North African countries show high risk due to the high exposure of their economy and of their government revenue combined with limited reserves per capita. Secondly, the macro-economic effects of a 60% fall in the price of oil is analysed with the GEM-E3 model, which is an stylized representation of the oil market change over the last two years. The results show that such an oil price drop has different effects across oil exporting countries, unsurprisingly strongly correlated with export dependence to oil. For instance, a 60% fall in the price of oil could lead to a reduction of the GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa by around 8.5%. The final section discusses the migration patterns from the studied countries, as a proxy of what might happen be they destabilised because of a lasting low oil price.

Suggested Citation

  • Alban Kitous & Bert Saveyn & Kimon Keramidas & Toon Vandyck & Luis Rey Los Santos & Krzysztof Wojtowicz, 2016. "Impact of low oil prices on oil exporting countries," JRC Research Reports JRC101562, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc101562
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC101562
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 131-158.
    2. repec:aen:journl:2010v31-01-a07 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Andreas Breitenfellner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices and the USD/EUR Exchange Rate," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4.
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    1. Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias & Maiani, Stefano & Nguyen, Tam Huu, 2025. "Predictive power of oil prices on CDS spread dynamics of oil-producing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Ali Fadul, 2021. "Does Organizational Justice Influence Employee Innovative Behavior in an Arabic Context? Evidence From the Libyan Oil Industry," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, September.
    3. Onyinye Maria David-Wayas & Joseph I. Amuka & Chukwudi F. Ezeudeka & Iyenge Mhir Aii & Micheal C. Nwankwo, 2021. "Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Nonoil Exporting Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 221-230.
    4. Namazi, Mehdi & Mohammadi, Emran, 2018. "Natural resource dependence and economic growth: A TOPSIS/DEA analysis of innovation efficiency," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 544-552.
    5. Mahmood, Haider & Alkhateeb, Tarek Tawfik Yousef & Ahmed, Nawaz, 2017. "Impact of devaluation on Saudi oil exports: The J-Curve analysis," MPRA Paper 109454, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Omer Ali Ibrahim & Sonal Devesh & Hisham Mohamed Hassan, 2019. "Sensitivity of Fiscal Balances to Oil Price Shocks: Short and Long Term Effects in the Context of Oman," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 146-155.
    7. Aladejare, Samson Adeniyi, 2023. "Economic prosperity, asymmetric natural resource income, and ecological demands in resource-reliant economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Toon Vandyck & Alban Kitous & Bert Saveyn & Kimon Keramidas & Luis Rey Los Santos & Krzysztof Wojtowicz, 2018. "Economic Exposure to Oil Price Shocks and the Fragility of Oil-Exporting Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, April.
    9. Stelios Bekiros & Jose Arreola Hernandez & Gazi Salah Uddin & Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar, 2020. "On the predictability of crude oil market: A hybrid multiscale wavelet approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 599-614, July.
    10. Farahnak, Fardin, 2022. "Comparative analysis of oil-driven economic policies for Saudi Arabia and Iran; using the CGE model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Aimer, Najmi & Lusta, Abdulmula, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of oil shocks on economic policy uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    12. Bigerna, Simona & D’Errico, Maria Chiara & Polinori, Paolo, 2022. "Dynamic forecast error variance decomposition as risk management process for the Gulf Cooperation Council oil portfolios," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Alqahtani Abdullah Saeed S & Ouyang Hongbing & Ali Adam & Saleh Shayem, 2018. "Oil Prices, Domestic Resource Gaps, and Breakeven Oil Prices in the Oil-Exporting Countries," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 6(2), pages 9-26, December.
    14. Somayeh Kokabisaghi & Mohammadesmaeil Ezazi & Reza Tehrani & Nourmohammad Yaghoubi, 2019. "Sanction or Financial Crisis? An Artificial Neural Network-Based Approach to model the impact of oil price volatility on Stock and industry indices," Papers 1912.04015, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.

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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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