IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/1518.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quantitative effects of the shale oil revolution

Author

Listed:
  • Galo Nuño

    (Banco de España)

  • Cristiana Belu Manescu

    (European Commission)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the so-called «shale oil revolution» on oil prices and economic growth. We employ a general equilibrium model of the world oil market in which Saudi Arabia is the dominant firm, with the rest of the producers as a competitive fringe. Our results suggest that most of the expected increase in US oil supply due to the shale oil revolution has already been incorporated into prices and that it will produce an additional increase of 0.2 percent in the GDP of oil importers in the period 2010-2018. We also employ the model to analyse the collapse in oil prices in the second half of 2014 and conclude that it was mainly due to positive unanticipated supply shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Galo Nuño & Cristiana Belu Manescu, 2015. "Quantitative effects of the shale oil revolution," Working Papers 1518, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1518
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/15/Fich/dt1518e.pdf
    File Function: First version, June 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark (ed.), 2010. "International Dimensions of Monetary Policy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226278865, September.
    2. Brémond, Vincent & Hache, Emmanuel & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Does OPEC still exist as a cartel? An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 125-131.
    3. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    4. Alhajji, A. F. & Huettner, David, 2000. "OPEC and other commodity cartels: a comparison," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(15), pages 1151-1164, December.
    5. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 131-158.
    6. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    7. A.F Alhajji & David Huettner, 2000. "OPEC and World Crude Oil Markets from 1973 to 1994: Cartel, Oligopoly, or Competitive?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 31-60.
    8. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2010. "Oil and the Great Moderation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(543), pages 131-156, March.
    9. James L. Smith, 2009. "World Oil: Market or Mayhem?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 145-164, Summer.
    10. Alquist, Ron & Guénette, Justin-Damien, 2014. "A blessing in disguise: The implications of high global oil prices for the North American market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 49-57.
    11. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP: Accounting for the Decline in U.S. Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(4), pages 595-614, October.
    12. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2010. "Monetary Policy Trade‐Offs with a Dominant Oil Producer," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 1-32, February.
    13. Alejandro Badel & Joseph McGillicuddy, 2015. "Oil Prices: Is Supply or Demand Behind the Slump?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 8.
    14. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    15. Carlos de Miguel & Baltasar Manzano, 2006. "Optimal Oil Taxation in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(3), pages 438-454, July.
    16. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
    17. Carol Dahl & Mine Yücel, 1991. "Testing Alternative Hypotheses of Oil Producer Behavior," The Energy Journal, , vol. 12(4), pages 117-138, October.
    18. Bodenstein, Martin & Guerrieri, Luca & Gust, Christopher J., 2013. "Oil shocks and the zero bound on nominal interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 941-967.
    19. Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 470-504, December.
    20. Jordi Galí & Mark J. Gertler, 2010. "International Dimensions of Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gert07-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(2), pages 185-205.
    2. Al Rousan, Sahel & Sbia, Rashid & Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2018. "A dynamic network analysis of the world oil market: Analysis of OPEC and non-OPEC members," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 28-41.
    3. Nathan S Balke & Xin Jin & Mine Yücel, 2024. "The Shale Revolution and the Dynamics of the Oil Market," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(662), pages 2252-2289.
    4. Nida Cakir Melek & Michael Plante & Mine Yucel, 2021. "Resource Booms and the Macroeconomy: The Case of U.S. Shale Oil," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 307-332, October.
    5. Qingqing Hu & Tinghui Li & Xue Li & Hao Dong, 2021. "Dynamic Characteristics of Oil Attributes and Their Market Effects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-22, June.
    6. Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira & Alberto Trejos, 2022. "Trade and the propagation of global shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1663-1680, October.
    7. Jaimes, Richard & Gerlagh, Reyer, 2020. "Resource-richness and economic growth in contemporary U.S," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Nida Çakır Melek & Michael D. Plante & Mine K. Yücel, 2017. "The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 1708, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Comincioli, Nicola & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M. & Menoncin, Francesco & Miniaci, Raffaele & Vergalli, Sergio, 2021. "Mothballing in a Duopoly: Evidence from a (Shale) Oil Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    10. Antonio J. Garz n & Luis . Hierro, 2018. "Fracking, Wars and Stock Market Crashes: The Price of Oil During the Great Recession," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 20-30.
    11. Fabrizio Ferriani & Filippo Natoli & Giovanni Veronese & Federica Zeni, 2019. "Risk premium in the era of shale oil," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1215, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Mohanned Alharbi, 2019. "The Reliance of the Saudi Economy and Adequacy of its Foreign Reserves with Reference to Oil Price Volatility: An Overview," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 5(6), pages 329-339.
    13. Thomas Theobald & Peter Hohlfeld, 2017. "Why have the recent oil price declines not stimulated global economic growth?," IMK Working Paper 185-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    14. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Natoli, Filippo & Veronese, Giovanni & Zeni, Federica, 2018. "Futures risk premia in the era of shale oil," MPRA Paper 89097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Nida Çakır Melek & Michael D. Plante & Mine K. Yücel, 2017. "The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis Nida," Research Working Paper RWP 17-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    16. Yi, Zhengrong & Sun, Churen, 2022. "Bilateral political relations, space spillovers and the import expansion of China’s bulk commodity," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    17. Yang, Haijun & Han, Xin & Wang, Li, 2021. "Is there a bubble in the shale gas market?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    18. Zeina Alsalman, 2021. "Does the source of oil supply shock matter in explaining the behavior of U.S. consumer spending and sentiment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1491-1518, September.
    19. Dohyoung Kwon, 2024. "Changes in the effects of oil price shocks on US industrial production," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2515-2526, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Joëts, Marc & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 63-78.
    3. Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 133-154, October.
    4. Berk, Istemi & Çam, Eren, 2020. "The shift in global crude oil market structure: A model-based analysis of the period 2013–2017," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Khalil, Makram, 2022. "Oil prices, manufacturing goods, and nontradeable services," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Khalil, Makram, 2020. "Global oil prices and the macroeconomy: The role of tradeable manufacturing versus nontradeable services," Discussion Papers 60/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Simona Delle Chiaie & Laurent Ferrara & Domenico Giannone, 2022. "Common factors of commodity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 461-476, April.
    9. Behar, Alberto & Ritz, Robert A., 2017. "OPEC vs US shale: Analyzing the shift to a market-share strategy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 185-198.
    10. Tumen, Semih & Unalmis, Deren & Unalmis, Ibrahim & Unsal, D. Filiz, 2016. "Taxing fossil fuels under speculative storage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 64-75.
    11. Golombek, Rolf & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Ma, Lin, 2018. "OPEC's market power: An empirical dominant firm model for the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 98-115.
    12. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar, 2016. "Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Global Financial Crisis," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.13, Bank of Israel.
    14. Berk, Istemi & Çam , Eren, 2019. "The Shift in Global Crude Oil Market Structure: A model-based analysis of the period 2013–2017," EWI Working Papers 2019-5, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    15. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    16. Anton Nakov & Galo Nuño, 2011. "A general equilibrium model of the oil market," Working Papers 1125, Banco de España.
    17. Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 470-504, December.
    18. Nathan S. Balke, Michael Plante, and Mine Yücel, 2015. "Fuel Subsidies, the Oil Market and the World Economy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Adelman S).
    19. Archanskaïa, Elizaveta & Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2012. "The nature of oil shocks and the global economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 509-520.
    20. Samya Beidas-Strom & Marco Lorusso, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK," IMF Working Papers 2019/214, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Saudi Arabia; general equilibrium; shale oil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1518. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdegves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.