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Mothballing in a Duopoly: Evidence from a (Shale) Oil Market

Author

Listed:
  • Comincioli, Nicola
  • Hagspiel, Verena
  • Kort, Peter M.
  • Menoncin, Francesco
  • Miniaci, Raffaele
  • Vergalli, Sergio

Abstract

The mothballing option has been studied in the literature, but mainly in decision theoretic frameworks. This paper looks at it from a strategic point of view and applies it to an incumbent-entrant framework. In particular, based on the recent strategic interactions between OPEC and the shale oil industry, we conduct a case study where the incumbent OPEC is a exible producer that competes with a representative shale oil firm. Upon entry, the latter produces a fixed amount but it can apply the mothballing option in times of low demand. Our main results are threefold. First, we find that under low demand uncertainty, the mothballing option has a negative effect on the value of the entrant. Second, a large market share of the entrant will stimulate mothballing, caused by a so-called squeeze strategy of the incumbent. Third, our empirical analysis of the (shale) oil market learns that a higher demand elasticity induces mothballing.

Suggested Citation

  • Comincioli, Nicola & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M. & Menoncin, Francesco & Miniaci, Raffaele & Vergalli, Sergio, "undated". "Mothballing in a Duopoly: Evidence from a (Shale) Oil Market," 2030 Agenda 307984, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemgc:307984
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.307984
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    2. Abigaba, Micah Lucy & Bengtsson, Jens & Ketelaars, Martijn & Kort, Peter M., 2024. "Uncertain Time to Completion in a Sequential Investment Problem : a Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Other publications TiSEM bd4b8da1-6517-4d14-8af3-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Feng Liu & Yingshuang Tan & Sudipto Sarkar & Xueqing Zhang & Xingjun Huang, 2023. "When to invest in electric vehicles under dual credit policy: A real options approach," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 2186-2198, June.
    4. Kupfer, Stefan & Prysyazhna, Vladlena & Lukas, Elmar & Mölls, Sascha, 2025. "Timing corporate social responsibility investments: A dynamic investment model and empirical evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Ketelaars, Martijn, 2024. "Clearing in financial networks and dynamic investment under uncertainty," Other publications TiSEM 94768fb9-fd72-405d-a330-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • L12 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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