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The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on the Macroeconomy

  • Soojin Jo

This paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity using a quarterly VAR with stochastic volatility in mean. Stochastic volatility allows oil price uncertainty to vary separately from changes in the level of oil prices, and thus the impact of oil price uncertainty can be examined in a more flexible yet tractable way. In addition, this paper substantially improves on the recovery of a historical uncertainty series by incorporating an additional uncertainty indicator, i.e., a realized volatility series from daily oil price data, into the estimation process. The estimation results show that an oil price uncertainty shock alone has negative effects on world industrial production.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Staff Working Papers with number 12-40.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-40
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  1. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
  2. Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Daniel P, 2010. "The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 7753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Dobrislav Dobrev & Pawel J. Szerszen, 2010. "The information content of high-frequency data for estimating equity return models and forecasting risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2014. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Working Papers 14-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  5. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
  6. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
  7. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Ryan Kellogg, 2010. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," NBER Working Papers 16541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Don Bredin & John Elder & Stilianos Fountas, 2010. "Oil Volatility and the Option Value of Waiting: An analysis of the G-7," Working Papers 201004, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  10. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2011. "The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market," Staff Working Papers 11-28, Bank of Canada.
  11. C. Baumeister & G. Peersman, 2008. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/515, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  12. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
  13. James D. Hamilton, 2011. "Historical Oil Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, 09.
  15. Dobrislav Dobrev & Pawel J. Szerszen, 2010. "The information content of high-frequency data for estimating equity return models and forecasting risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June.
  17. Xin Huang & George Tauchen, 2005. "The Relative Contribution of Jumps to Total Price Variance," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 456-499.
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