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The information content of high-frequency data for estimating equity return models and forecasting risk

Author

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  • Dobrislav Dobrev
  • Pawel J. Szerszen

Abstract

We demonstrate that the parameters controlling skewness and kurtosis in popular equity return models estimated at daily frequency can be obtained almost as precisely as if volatility is observable by simply incorporating the strong information content of realized volatility measures extracted from high-frequency data. For this purpose, we introduce asymptotically exact volatility measurement equations in state space form and propose a Bayesian estimation approach. Our highly efficient estimates lead in turn to substantial gains for forecasting various risk measures at horizons ranging from a few days to a few months ahead when taking also into account parameter uncertainty. As a practical rule of thumb, we find that two years of high frequency data often suffice to obtain the same level of precision as twenty years of daily data, thereby making our approach particularly useful in finance applications where only short data samples are available or economically meaningful to use. Moreover, we find that compared to model inference without high-frequency data, our approach largely eliminates underestimation of risk during bad times or overestimation of risk during good times. We assess the attainable improvements in VaR forecast accuracy on simulated data and provide an empirical illustration on stock returns during the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrislav Dobrev & Pawel J. Szerszen, 2010. "The information content of high-frequency data for estimating equity return models and forecasting risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2010-45
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    Citations

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    1. repec:eee:phsmap:v:500:y:2018:i:c:p:139-154 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Takahashi, Makoto & Watanabe, Toshiaki & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2016. "Volatility and quantile forecasts by realized stochastic volatility models with generalized hyperbolic distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 437-457.
    3. Yuta Kurose & Yasuhiro Omori, "undated". "Multiple-lock Dynamic Equicorrelations with Realized Measures, Leverage and Endogeneity," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1075, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Patton, Andrew J. & Quaedvlieg, Rogier, 2016. "Exploiting the errors: A simple approach for improved volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 1-18.
    5. Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Gael M. Martin & Catherine S. Forbes, 2017. "Dynamic Price Jumps: the Performance of High Frequency Tests and Measures, and the Robustness of Inference," Papers 1708.09520, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2018.
    6. repec:eee:intfor:v:34:y:2018:i:2:p:276-287 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bandi, F.M. & Renò, R., 2016. "Price and volatility co-jumps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 107-146.
    8. Shirota, Shinichiro & Hizu, Takayuki & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2014. "Realized stochastic volatility with leverage and long memory," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 618-641.
    9. Creel, Michael & Kristensen, Dennis, 2015. "ABC of SV: Limited information likelihood inference in stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 85-108.
    10. repec:eee:reveco:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:321-329 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Soojin Jo, 2012. "The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on the Macroeconomy," Staff Working Papers 12-40, Bank of Canada.
    12. Li, Shaoyu & Zheng, Tingguo, 2017. "Modeling spot rate using a realized stochastic volatility model with level effect and dynamic drift☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 200-221.
    13. Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Gael M Martin & Catherine S Forbes, 2018. "Dynamic price jumps: The performance of high frequency tests and measures, and the robustness of inference," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/18, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    14. Todorov, Viktor & Tauchen, George & Grynkiv, Iaryna, 2011. "Realized Laplace transforms for estimation of jump diffusive volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 367-381, October.
    15. Yuta Kurose & Yasuhiro Omori, "undated". "Multiple-lock Dynamic Equicorrelations with Realized Measures, Leverage and Endogeneity," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1075, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    16. Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Gael M. Martin & Catherine S. Forbes, 2017. "Dynamic asset price jumps and the performance of high frequency tests and measures," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    17. Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Catherine S. Forbes & Gael M. Martin, 2016. "Inference on Self-Exciting Jumps in Prices and Volatility using High Frequency Measures," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

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    Keywords

    Stocks - Rate of return ; Economic forecasting;

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