IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Does the value of US dollar matter with the price of oil and gold? A dynamic analysis from time–frequency space

Listed author(s):
  • Lin, Fu-Lai
  • Chen, Yu-Fen
  • Yang, Sheng-Yung
Registered author(s):

    This paper uses wavelet analysis to examine whether the value of US dollars drives the price of oil and gold. By decomposing the pairwise relationship between oil–US dollar and gold–US dollar into short-term and long-term components, risk managers who are pursuing different decision-making horizons would be able to moderate their risk exposures according to these results. Empirical findings indicate that the pairwise relations became weaker as the time frames being observed widened, suggesting that short-term correlations were much higher after early 1990s. The Fed monetary policy is the main driver to the pairwise correlations of oil–US dollar and gold–US dollar. The dynamic interdependences also indicate that crude oil market has been dominated by the US dollar while gold leads the US dollar in the short run after early 1990s. On the other hand, we find that financial crises do accelerate interdependences between oil–US dollar and gold–US dollar, which alter the original relationship between these assets. The risk variables of TED spread and variance of S&P 500 predict the closer oil–US dollar and gold–US dollar correlations during the crisis period.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056015001811
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 43 (2016)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 59-71

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:43:y:2016:i:c:p:59-71
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2015.10.031
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as
    in new window


    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, 05.
    2. Ramsey James B. & Lampart Camille, 1998. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets: Expenditure and Income," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
    4. Krichene, Noureddine, 2002. "World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 557-576, November.
    5. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2665-2676.
    6. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Soares, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 645-655, May.
    7. John C. Williams & John B. Taylor, 2009. "A Black Swan in the Money Market," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 58-83, January.
    8. James Ramsey, 1999. "Regression over Timescale Decompositions: A Sampling Analysis of Distributional Properties," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 163-184.
    9. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    10. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    11. Chiang, Thomas C. & Zheng, Dazhi, 2010. "An empirical analysis of herd behavior in global stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1911-1921, August.
    12. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
    13. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
    14. Kim, Sangbae & In, Francis, 2005. "The relationship between stock returns and inflation: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 435-444, June.
    15. Rua, António, 2010. "Measuring comovement in the time-frequency space," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 685-691, June.
    16. Connolly, Robert & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(01), pages 161-194, March.
    17. Ramsey, James B. & Lampart, Camille, 1998. "Decomposition Of Economic Relationships By Timescale Using Wavelets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 49-71, March.
    18. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    19. António Rua, 2012. "Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Time-Frequency View," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(6), pages 875-885, December.
    20. Rua, António & Nunes, Luís C., 2009. "International comovement of stock market returns: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 632-639, September.
    21. Sjaastad, Larry A., 2008. "The price of gold and the exchange rates: Once again," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 118-124, June.
    22. Jiang, Chun & Chang, Tsangyao & Li, Xiao-Lin, 2015. "Money growth and inflation in China: New evidence from a wavelet analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 249-261.
    23. Panchenko, Valentyn & Wu, Eliza, 2009. "Time-varying market integration and stock and bond return concordance in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1014-1021, June.
    24. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2014. "Gold and exchange rates: Downside risk and hedging at different investment horizons," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 267-279.
    25. Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2005. "Multiscale systematic risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, February.
    26. Connor Jeff & Rossiter Rosemary, 2005. "Wavelet Transforms and Commodity Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, March.
    27. Francis In & Sangbae Kim, 2006. "The Hedge Ratio and the Empirical Relationship between the Stock and Futures Markets: A New Approach Using Wavelet Analysis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 799-820, March.
    28. Yousefi, Ayoub & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2004. "The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 783-799, September.
    29. Kim Sangbae & In Francis Haeuck, 2003. "The Relationship Between Financial Variables and Real Economic Activity: Evidence From Spectral and Wavelet Analyses," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, December.
    30. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    31. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chen, Hung-Chyn, 2007. "Oil prices and real exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 390-404, May.
    32. Tonn, Victor Lux & Li, H.C. & McCarthy, Joseph, 2010. "Wavelet domain correlation between the futures prices of natural gas and oil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 408-414, November.
    33. Capie, Forrest & Mills, Terence C. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2005. "Gold as a hedge against the dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 343-352, October.
    34. Noureddine Krichene, 2005. "A Simultaneous Equations Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets," IMF Working Papers 05/32, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2010. "The crude oil market and the gold market: Evidence for cointegration, causality and price discovery," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 168-177, September.
    36. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Azevedo, Nuno & Soares, Maria Joana, 2008. "Using wavelets to decompose the time–frequency effects of monetary policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2863-2878.
    37. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Malliaris, A.G., 2011. "Oil prices and the impact of the financial crisis of 2007–2009," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1049-1054.
    38. Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 351-362, March.
    39. Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Roll, Richard, 2011. "Gold and the Dollar (and the Euro, Pound, and Yen)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2070-2083, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:43:y:2016:i:c:p:59-71. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.