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The value of cross market volatility in improving the forecast accuracy of risk in the gold, the dollar and the oil futures markets

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  • Awartani, Basel
  • Maghyereh, Aktham

Abstract

The gold, the oil and the dollar are related due to many factors. As a result, co-movement and volatility linkages may be established. These then can be exploited to improve risk prediction, and this is the main aim of this paper. We find that the dollar volatility improves risk forecasts of oil and gold. The predictability of the dollar, the gold and the oil is found to be period related though it is more pronounced during crisis periods. These results highlight the importance of cross market dependence in forecasting the volatility of related markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2025. "The value of cross market volatility in improving the forecast accuracy of risk in the gold, the dollar and the oil futures markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:83:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325009274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107668
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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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