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A unit root model for trending time-series energy variables

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Liu, Ruipeng

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a GARCH-based unit root test that is flexible enough to account for; (a) trending variables, (b) two endogenous structural breaks, and (c) heteroskedastic data series. Our proposed model is applied to a range of time-series, trending, and heteroskedastic energy variables. Our two main findings are: first, the proposed trend-based GARCH unit root model outperforms a GARCH model without trend; and, second, allowing for a time trend and two endogenous structural breaks are important in practice, for doing so allows us to reject the unit root null hypothesis.
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Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2015. "A unit root model for trending time-series energy variables," Working Papers fe_2015_05, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2015_05
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.11.021
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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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