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Slow oil shocks and the "weakening of the oil price-macroeconomy relationship"

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  • Naccache, Théo

Abstract

Many papers have been documenting and analysing the asymmetry and the weakening of the oil price-macroeconomy relationship as off the early eighties. While there seems to be a consensus about the factors causing the asymmetry, namely adjustment costs which offset the benefits of low energy prices, the debate about the weakening of the relationship is not over yet. Moreover, the alternative oil price specifications which have been proposed by Mork (1989), Lee et al. (1995), and Hamilton (1996) to restore the stability of the relationship fail to Granger cause output or unemployment in post-1980 data. By using the concept of accelerations of the oil price, we show that the weakening of this relationship corresponds to the appearance of slow oil price increases, which have less impact on the economy. When filtering out these slow oil price variations from the sample, we manage to rehabilitate the causality running from the oil price to the macroeconomy and show that far from weakening, the oil price accelerations-GDP relationship has even been growing stronger since the early eighties.

Suggested Citation

  • Naccache, Théo, 2010. "Slow oil shocks and the "weakening of the oil price-macroeconomy relationship"," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2340-2345, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:5:p:2340-2345
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hillard G. Huntington, 2017. "The Historical Roots of U.S. Energy Price Shocks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    2. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "Crude oil price behaviour before and after military conflicts and geopolitical events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 79-91.
    3. Picciolo, Francesco & Papandreou, Andreas & Hubacek, Klaus & Ruzzenenti, Franco, 2017. "How crude oil prices shape the global division of labor," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 753-761.
    4. Florian Fizaine & Victor Court, 2016. "The energy-economic growth relationship: a new insight from the EROI perspective," Working Papers 1601, Chaire Economie du climat.
    5. Al-mulali, Usama, 2010. "The impact of oil shocks on the G-7 countries GDP growth," MPRA Paper 26846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Elsiddig Rahma & Noel Perera & Kian Tan, 2016. "Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Sudan’s Government Budget," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 243-248.
    7. Naccache, Théo, 2011. "Oil price cycles and wavelets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 338-352, March.
    8. repec:eee:touman:v:33:y:2012:i:1:p:133-142 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Park, Chuhwan & Chung, Mo & Lee, Sukgyu, 2011. "The effects of oil price on regional economies with different production structures: A case study from Korea using a structural VAR model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8185-8195.
    10. Huntington, Hillard, 2016. "The Historical “Roots” of U.S. Energy Price Shocks: Supplemental Results," MPRA Paper 74701, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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