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Oil Shocks and Real U.S. Income

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  • Hillard G. Huntington

Abstract

The analysis explains how previous oil shocks have affected real U.S. income. Real income differs from aggregate economic output (GDP) because it includes the purchasing power losses associated with more expensive imported petroleum. Real income declines immediately during the same quarter as the oil price shock as opposed to the output effects, which are lagged over several quarters. These immediate losses can be significant, reaching as much as 1.7% of the baseline value in the same quarter, for a doubling of crude oil prices. Expanding coverage to include purchasing power losses allows policy analysts to evaluate a range of different policy instruments that can influence oil prices, such as the building and release of the strategic petroleum reserve.

Suggested Citation

  • Hillard G. Huntington, 2007. "Oil Shocks and Real U.S. Income," The Energy Journal, , vol. 28(4), pages 31-46, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:28:y:2007:i:4:p:31-46
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No4-2
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    1. Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
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    3. Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 19-36.
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    1. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    2. Coelho dos Santos, Marcelo Bittencourt & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Baptista Palazzi, Rafael, 2024. "The effect of oil discovery in Brazil: A synthetic control approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Naccache, Théo, 2010. "Slow oil shocks and the "weakening of the oil price-macroeconomy relationship"," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2340-2345, May.
    4. Murphy, Frederic & Oliveira, Fernando S., 2010. "Developing a market-based approach to managing the US strategic petroleum reserve," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 488-495, October.
    5. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    6. Greene, D.L. & Boudreaux, P.R. & Dean, D.J. & Fulkerson, W. & Gaddis, A.L. & Graham, R.L. & Graves, R.L. & Hopson, J.L. & Hughes, P. & Lapsa, M.V. & Mason, T.E. & Standaert, R.F. & Wilbanks, T.J. & Zu, 2010. "The importance of advancing technology to America's energy goals," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3886-3890, August.
    7. Abhay Abhyankar, Bing Xu, and Jiayue Wang, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and the Stock Market: Evidence from Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    8. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2013. "The Economic Impact of Oil on Industry Portfolios," Documentos de Trabajo 433, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil shocks; oil prices; real income US; GDP; volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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