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Energy uncertainty and energy trade: International evidence

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  • Doan, Thang Ngoc
  • Nguyen, Trung Thanh

Abstract

This study examines the impact of energy uncertainty on energy trade, utilizing trade information sourced from CEPII BACI and energy-related uncertainty from Dang et al. (2023). The analysis is based on a dataset covering bilateral energy trade for 28 developed and developing countries over the period from 1996 to 2021. The bilateral configuration of the dataset offers a valuable framework for disentangling the divergent influences of supply and demand, thereby facilitating the dissection of the effects of heightened energy uncertainty on energy trade from other variables. The finding of this investigation indicates that energy uncertainty within the exporting country acts as a deterrent for energy export. This effect is transmitted through the energy demand and supply channels and is heterogenous across years and income groups. The implications of our findings extend to several policy considerations.

Suggested Citation

  • Doan, Thang Ngoc & Nguyen, Trung Thanh, 2025. "Energy uncertainty and energy trade: International evidence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:319:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225006206
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134978
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    JEL classification:

    • Q37 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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