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International spillover effects of U.S. tax reforms: Evidence from Germany

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  • Christofzik, Désirée I.
  • Elstner, Steffen

Abstract

This paper explores the international transmission of U.S. tax shocks and provides evidence for the German economy. Using structural vector autoregressions, we find that after a U.S. tax cut, German GDP increases moderately. While higher U.S. demand stimulates German exports, a deterioration of price competitiveness lowers this positive growth impulse. The current account increases significantly. Surprisingly, German prices fall as domestic companies reduce unit labor costs. The resulting increase of the real interest rate dampens domestic demand. German tax policy shows an opposite reaction to U.S. tax policy. The latter result, however, is driven by the decade of the 1970s. We find that significant changes in the transmission channels arise by distinguishing between different types of U.S. tax reforms. In particular, in contrast to U.S. personal income tax reforms, changes in the corporate income tax cause a depreciation of the German real effective exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Christofzik, Désirée I. & Elstner, Steffen, 2018. "International spillover effects of U.S. tax reforms: Evidence from Germany," Working Papers 08/2018, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:082018
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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli, 2021. "The International Transmission of US Tax Shocks: A Proxy-SVAR Approach," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 325-356, June.
    2. Désirée I. Christofzik & Angela Fuest & Robin Jessen, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of the Anticipation and Implementation of Tax Changes in Germany: Evidence from a Narrative Account," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 62-81, January.
    3. Dorine Boumans & Clemens Fuest & Carla Krolage & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Expected effects of the US tax reform on other countries: global and local survey evidence," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(6), pages 1608-1630, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; tax policy; international spillovers; structural vector autoregressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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