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On the Macroeconomic and Fiscal Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

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  • Wieland, Volker
  • Lieberknecht, Philipp

Abstract

There is substantial disagreement about the consequences of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, which constitutes the most extensive tax reform in the United States in more than 30 years. Using a large-scale two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities, we find that the TCJA increases GDP by about 2% in the medium-run and by about 2.5% in the long-run. The short-run impact depends crucially on the degree and costs of variable capital utilization, with GDP effects ranging from 1 to 3%. At the same time, the TCJA does not pay for itself. In our analysis, the reform decreases tax revenues and raises the debt-to-GDP ratio by about 15 percentage points in the medium-run until 2025. We show that combining the TCJA with spending cuts can dampen the increase in government indebtedness without reducing its expansionary effect.

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  • Wieland, Volker & Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2019. "On the Macroeconomic and Fiscal Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act," CEPR Discussion Papers 13629, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13629
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    Cited by:

    1. Tervala, Juha & Watson, Timothy, 2022. "Hysteresis and fiscal stimulus in a recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Désirée I Christofzik & Steffen Elstner, 2021. "International spillover effects of U.S. tax reforms: evidence from Germany," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 578-600.
    3. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
    4. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Robert E. Moore & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2021. "Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Labor Supply and Welfare of Married Households," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2021-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Kempkes, Gerhard & Stähler, Nikolai, 2021. "Re-allocating taxing rights and minimum tax rates in international profit taxation," Discussion Papers 03/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    7. Boehl, Gregor, 2022. "Efficient solution and computation of models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Marius Clemens & Werner Röger, 2021. "Rising Allowances, Rising Rates: A Tinbergen Rule for Capital Taxation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1986, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax reform; Tjca; Tax cuts; Macroconomic modeling; Fiscal policy transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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