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Assessing scenarios on the future of work

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  • António Brandão Moniz

    () (IET, FCT-Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

Abstract

In this paper will be discussed different types of scenarios and the aims for using scenarios. Normaly they are being used by organisations due to the need to anticipate processes, to support policy-making and to understand the complexities of relations. Such organisations can be private companies, R&D organisations and networks of organisations, or even by some public administration institutions. Some cases will be discussed as the methods for ongoing scenario-building process (Shell Internacional). Scenarios should anticipate possible relations among social actors as in the Triple Helix Model, and is possible to develop strategic intelligence in the innovation process that would enable the construction of scenarios. Such processes can be assessed. The focus will be made in relation to the steps chosen for the WORKS scenarios. In this case is there a model of work changes that can be used for foresight? Differences according to sectors were found, as well on other dimensions. Problems of assessment are analysed with specific application to the scenario construction methods.

Suggested Citation

  • António Brandão Moniz, 2008. "Assessing scenarios on the future of work," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 4(4), pages 91-106, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ieu:journl:v:4:y:2008:i:4:p:91-106
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    File URL: http://run.unl.pt/handle/10362/1887
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Shripad Tuljapurkar & Ronald D. Lee & Qi Li, 2004. "Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts," Working Papers wp073, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
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    9. Huss, William R., 1988. "A move toward scenario analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 377-388.
    10. Margarida R. Paulos & António B. Moniz, 2009. "Are societal changes new? Questions or trends and future perceptions on knowledge-based economy," IET Working Papers Series 02/2009, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology.
    11. Granger, Clive W.J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2007. "Long-term forecasting and evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 539-551.
    12. Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 575-582, December.
    13. Moniz, António & Godinho, Manuel M., 2000. "New Methodological Approaches for Change in Traditional Sectors: The Case of the Portuguese Fisheries Socio-Economic System," MPRA Paper 6444, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2000.
    14. António B. Moniz, 2006. "Foresight methodologies to understand changes in the labour process. Experience from Portugal," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 2(2), pages 105-116, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. António B. Moniz, 2009. "Foresight studies on work in the knowledge society: a 2nd international conference at UNL," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 5(5), pages 77-81, November.
    2. António Brandão Moniz, 2012. "Avaliação participativa de tecnologia e sustentabilidade organizacional [Participative technology assessment and organisational sustainability]," IET Working Papers Series 06/2012, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology.
    3. Abdurrahman M. Yazan, 2016. "Methods Used in Future Technology Analysis and its Selection: an application to VTOL transportation system," IET Working Papers Series 03/2016, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    scenarios; foresight; assessment;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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