Assessing scenarios on the future of work
In this paper will be discussed different types of scenarios and the aims for using scenarios. Normaly they are being used by organisations due to the need to anticipate processes, to support policy-making and to understand the complexities of relations. Such organisations can be private companies, R&D organisations and networks of organisations, or even by some public administration institutions. Some cases will be discussed as the methods for ongoing scenario-building process (Shell Internacional). Scenarios should anticipate possible relations among social actors as in the Triple Helix Model, and is possible to develop strategic intelligence in the innovation process that would enable the construction of scenarios. Such processes can be assessed. The focus will be made in relation to the steps chosen for the WORKS scenarios. In this case is there a model of work changes that can be used for foresight? Differences according to sectors were found, as well on other dimensions. Problems of assessment are analysed with specific application to the scenario construction methods.
Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 21 790 83 00 ext. 1218/1488|
Phone: 212948503 ext.10401
Web page: http://sites.fct.unl.pt/iet/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shripad Tuljapurkar & Ronald D. Lee & Qi Li, 2004. "Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts," Working Papers wp073, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Margarida R. Paulos & António B. Moniz, 2009. "Are societal changes new? Questions or trends and future perceptions on knowledge-based economy," IET Working Papers Series 02/2009, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology.
- Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001.
"Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1997. "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," NBER Technical Working Papers 0213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1997. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Working Papers 97-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Measuring Predictability: Theory And Macroeconomic Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 2424, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," Working Papers 98-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, "undated". "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," CARESS Working Papres 97-19, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2006.
"How Far Ahead Can We Forecast? Evidence From Cross-country Surveys,"
06-04, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal, 2007. "How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 167-187.
- Moniz, António, 2006.
"Foresight methodologies to understand changes in the labour process: Experience from Portugal,"
5686, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006.
- António B. Moniz, 2006. "Foresight methodologies to understand changes in the labour process. Experience from Portugal," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 2(2), pages 105-116, November.
- Klaus Abberger, 2007. "Forecasting Quarter-on-Quarter Changes of German GDP with Monthly Business Tendency Survey Results," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 40, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Moniz, António & Godinho, Manuel M., 2000. "New Methodological Approaches for Change in Traditional Sectors: The Case of the Portuguese Fisheries Socio-Economic System," MPRA Paper 6444, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2000.
- Pflaumer, Peter, 1988. "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 135-142.
- Granger, Clive W.J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2007. "Long-term forecasting and evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 539-551.
- Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 575-582, December.
- Heilemann, Ullrich & Stekler, Herman, 2007. "Introduction to "The future of macroeconomic forecasting"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 159-165.
- Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
- Huss, William R., 1988. "A move toward scenario analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 377-388.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ieu:journl:v:4:y:2008:i:4:p:91-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (António Brandão Moniz)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.