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The Macroeconomics Outcome of Oil Shocks in the Small Eurozone Economies

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  • Raphael Raduzzi
  • Antonio Ribba

Abstract

In this work we provide an analysis over the period 1999 - 2015 of the effects of oil shocks on prices and GDP in a group of small Euro-area economies. The group includes Austria, Belgium, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. We use the structural near-VAR methodology and are thus able to model the joint interaction of area-wide macroeconomic variables and national variables. We find that under the EMU oil price shocks have been important drivers of business cycle fluctuations in almost all these countries. Moreover, an increase in oil prices produces significant recessionary effects in all the countries included in the investigation. Thus, although there are different sizes in the responses of output in the investigated countries, our main conclusion is that oil prices (still) matter for European economies

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Raduzzi & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "The Macroeconomics Outcome of Oil Shocks in the Small Eurozone Economies," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 127, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    • Handle: RePEc:mod:recent:127
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    Cited by:

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    3. Antonio Ribba, 2020. "Is the unemployment–inflation trade‐off still alive in the Euro Area and its member countries? It seems so," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2393-2410, September.
    4. Mala Raghavan & Faisal Khan & Sonia Kumari Selvarajan & Evelyn S. Devadason, 2023. "Cross‐country linkages between ASEAN and non‐ASEAN‐RCEP member states: A global VAR analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(6), pages 1782-1814, June.
    5. Yildirim, Zekeriya & Arifli, Arif, 2021. "Oil price shocks, exchange rate and macroeconomic fluctuations in a small oil-exporting economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    6. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Antonio Ribba, 2022. "Monetary Policy Shocks in Open Economies and the Inflation Unemployment Trade-Off: The Case of the Euro Area," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-12, March.
    8. Antonio Ribba, 2019. "Is the unemployment inflation trade-off still alive in the Euro Area and its member countries? It seems so," Department of Economics 0160, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Shocks; Business Cycles; Near-Structural VARs; Euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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