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A Bivariate Model of Federal Reserve and ECB Main Policy Rates

Author

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  • Chiara Scotti

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

This paper studies when and by how much the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank change their target interest rates. I develop a new non-linear bivariate framework, which allows for elaborate dynamics and potential interdependence between the two countries, as opposed to linear feedback rules, such as a Taylor rule, and I use a novel real-time data set. Although the data sample is inherently small, through a Bayesian estimation approach, I find some evidence in favor of timing synchronization between central banks and against the hypothesis of follower behaviors. Results for the magnitude model support zero correlation in the size of the target rate changes. Institutional factors and inflation represent relevant variables for both timing and magnitude decisions, while output plays a secondary role.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Scotti, 2011. "A Bivariate Model of Federal Reserve and ECB Main Policy Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 37-78, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2011:q:3:a:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D. D. Evans, 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macroeconomy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
    2. Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 63-79, October.
    3. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139.
    4. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2002. "A simple approach to international monetary policy coordination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 177-196, June.
    5. Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "The execution of monetary policy: a tale of two central banks," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 435-467, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles," Department of Economics 0111, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    2. Raphael Raduzzi & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "The Macroeconomics Outcome of Oil Shocks in the Small Eurozone Economies," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 127, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    3. Pietro Dallari & Antonio Ribba, 2015. "Economic Shocks and their Effects on Unemployment in the Euro Area Periphery under the EMU," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 114, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    4. van den Hauwe, Sjoerd & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 19-40.
    5. Antonio Ribba, 2012. "The federal funds rate and the conduction of the international orchestra," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 2983-2990.
    6. repec:qld:uq2004:508 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2015. "Common macroeconomic shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Euro area countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 377-392.
    8. Angrist, Joshua D. & Jordà, Òscar & Kuersteiner, Guido M., 2013. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," Working Paper Series 2013-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Carolina Osorio Buitron & Esteban Vesperoni, 2015. "Big Players Out of Synch; Spillovers Implications of US and Euro Area Shocks," IMF Working Papers 15/215, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Lahiri Kajal & Yang Liu, 2016. "A non-linear forecast combination procedure for binary outcomes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 421-440, September.
    11. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 128, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    12. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    13. Pietro Dallari & Antonio Ribba, 2015. "Economic Shocks and their Effects on Unemployment in the Euro Area Periphery under the EMU," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0057, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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