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Does climate policy make the EU economy more resilient to oil price rises? A CGE analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Helene Maisonnave

    (ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université)

  • Jonathan Pycroft
  • Bert Saveyn
  • Juan-Carlos Ciscar

Abstract

The European Union has committed itself to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% in 2020 compared with 1990 levels. This paper investigates whether this policy has an additional benefit in terms of economic resilience by protecting the EU from the macroeconomic consequences due to an oil price rise. We use the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model to analyse the results of three scenarios. The first one refers to the impact of an increase in the oil price. The second scenario analyses the European climate policy and the third scenario analyses the oil price rise when the European climate policy is implemented. Unilateral EU climate policy implies a cost on the EU of around 1.0% of GDP. An oil price rise in the presence of EU climate policy does imply an additional cost on the EU of 1.5% of GDP (making a total loss of 2.5% of GDP), but this is less than the 2.2% of GDP that the EU would lose from the oil price rise in the absence of climate policy. This is evidence that even unilateral climate policy does offer some economic protection for the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Helene Maisonnave & Jonathan Pycroft & Bert Saveyn & Juan-Carlos Ciscar, 2012. "Does climate policy make the EU economy more resilient to oil price rises? A CGE analysis," Post-Print hal-02314214, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02314214
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.053
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    Cited by:

    1. Gracceva, Francesco & Zeniewski, Peter, 2014. "A systemic approach to assessing energy security in a low-carbon EU energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 335-348.
    2. Alban Kitous & Bert Saveyn & Steve Gervais & Tobias Wiesenthal & Antonio Soria, 2013. "Analysis of the Iran Oil Embargo," JRC Research Reports JRC77983, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Millard, Robert & Withey, Patrick & Lantz, Van & Ochuodho, Thomas O., 2017. "The general equilibrium costs and impacts of oil price shocks in Newfoundland and Labrador," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 192-198.
    4. Hu, Lei & Song, Min & Wen, Fenghua & Zhang, Yun & Zhao, Yunning, 2025. "The impact of climate attention on risk spillover effect in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    5. Toon Vandyck & Alban Kitous & Bert Saveyn & Kimon Keramidas & Luis Rey Los Santos & Krzysztof Wojtowicz, 2018. "Economic Exposure to Oil Price Shocks and the Fragility of Oil-Exporting Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, April.
    6. Nong, Duy & Meng, Sam & Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2017. "An assessment of a proposed ETS in Australia by using the MONASH-Green model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 281-291.
    7. Wang, Kai-Hua & Kan, Jia-Min & Qiu, Lianhong & Xu, Shulin, 2023. "Climate policy uncertainty, oil price and agricultural commodity: From quantile and time perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 256-272.
    8. Sakamoto, Tomoyuki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2015. "Energy pricing impact on domestic economy under recent climate action," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 150-162.
    9. Zoi Vrontisi & Alban Kitous & Bert Saveyn & Toon Vandyck, 2015. "Impact of low oil prices on the EU economy," JRC Research Reports JRC98188, Joint Research Centre.
    10. Laura-Patricia Oviedo-Toral & Davi Ezequiel François & Witold-Roger Poganietz, 2021. "Challenges for Energy Transition in Poverty-Ridden Regions—The Case of Rural Mixteca, Mexico," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-22, May.
    11. Guivarch, Céline & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Rozenberg, Julie & Monjon, Stéphanie, 2013. "Will climate policy improve European energy security?," Conference papers 332303, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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