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The double dividend: Fact or fiction? Evidence from the European Union

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  • Ješina, Vít
  • Arltová, Markéta

Abstract

The public often considers environmental protection as detrimental to the economy. Our paper aims to contribute to this debate by examining the reality of the theory of double dividend on sixteen years (2008–2023) of historic European data. Using auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) models, we analyze indicators related to environmental performance, economy and taxation in order to verify the individual dividends as well as the revenue-recycling effect. Six models, each in three variations for groups of the original, the new and all member states, provide differing results. The double-dividend theory is wholly proven only for the original member states. The new member states showed conflicting results in the environmental dividend, and while the economic one was seemingly proven, the revenue-recycling effect was not. The same applies to the pooled group, except the revenue-recycling effect was also conflicting. The results thus show that some European states successfully turned the theory into reality, and others thus might have a chance to do the same.

Suggested Citation

  • Ješina, Vít & Arltová, Markéta, 2026. "The double dividend: Fact or fiction? Evidence from the European Union," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:241:y:2026:i:c:s0921800925003349
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108851
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