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Does climate policy make the EU economy more resilient to oil price rises? A CGE analysis

The European Union has committed itself to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% in 2020 compared with 1990 levels. This paper investigates whether this policy has an additional benefit in terms of economic resilience by protecting the EU from the macroeconomic consequences due to an oil price rise. We use the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model to analyze the results of three scenarios. The first one refers to the impact of an increase in the oil price. The second scenario analyses the European climate policy and the third scenario analyses the oil price rise when the European climate policy is implemented. Unilateral EU climate policy imposes a cost on the EU of around 1.0% of GDP. An oil price rise in the presence of EU climate policy does impose an additional cost on the EU of 1.5% of GDP, but this is less than the 2.2% of GDP that the EU would lose from the oil price rise in the absence of climate policy. This is evidence that even unilateral climate policy does offer some economic protection for the EU.

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Paper provided by Joint Research Centre (Seville site) in its series JRC Working Papers with number JRC68858.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc68858
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  1. Fischer, Carolyn, 2001. "Rebating Environmental Policy Revenues: Output-Based Allocations and Tradable Performance Standards," Discussion Papers dp-01-22, Resources For the Future.
  2. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
  3. Vielle, Marc & Viguier, Laurent, 2007. "On the climate change effects of high oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 844-849, February.
  4. Bert Saveyn & Denise Van Regemorter & Juan-Carlos Ciscar, 2012. "Economic analysis of the climate pledges of the Copenhagen Accord for the EU and other major countries," EcoMod2012 4072, EcoMod.
  5. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00866449 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Julie Rozenberg & Stéphane Hallegatte & Adrien Vogt-Schilb & Olivier Sassi & Céline Guivarch & Henri Waisman & Jean Charles Hourcade, 2010. "Climate policies as a hedge against the uncertainty on future oil supply," Post-Print hal-00667118, HAL.
  7. Yazid Dissou, 2005. "Output-Based Emissions Allowances and the Equity-Efficiency Trade-off," Working Papers 0505E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  8. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Elstner & Georg Paula, 2011. "How Strongly Did the 2007/08 Oil Price Hike Contribute to the Subsequent Recession?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3357, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007–08," FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper 2009-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Turton, Hal & Barreto, Leonardo, 2006. "Long-term security of energy supply and climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2232-2250, October.
  11. Alain Bernard & Marc Vielle, 2008. "GEMINI-E3, a general equilibrium model of international–national interactions between economy, energy and the environment," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 173-206, May.
  12. Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Conrad, K & Schroder, M, 1991. "Demand for Durable and Nondurable Goods, Environmental Policy and Consumer Welfare," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 271-86, July-Sept.
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