What's so Great about the Great Moderation? A Multi-Country Investigation of Time-Varying Volatilities of Output Growth and Inflation
Changes in volatility of output growth and inflation are examined for eight countries with at least 140 years of uninterrupted data. Time-varying parameter vector autoregressions are used to estimate standard deviations of each variable. Both volatilities rise quickly with World War I and its aftermath, stay relatively high until the end of World War II, and then drop rapidly until the mid- to late 1960s. This Postwar Moderation typically yields the largest decline in output growth volatilities. For all countries, volatilities of both output growth and inflation fall more during this Postwar Moderation than during the Great Moderation, and often the difference is huge. Both volatilities typically reach their lowest levels following the Great Moderation. The Great Moderation often counteracts an increase in volatility that took place in the 1970s, particularly for inflation. In nearly all the countries in our sample, the recent financial crisis has eliminated the stability gains associated with the Great Moderation, and sometimes it has even eroded gains made during the Postwar Moderation. Periods in which a fixed exchange rate system was widespread are associated with relatively low volatilities for both variables. Based on our structural VAR identification, permanent shocks to output account for nearly all of the fluctuations in the volatility of output growth while shocks that have only a temporary effect on output explain most of the fluctuations in inflation volatility. These last two findings suggest that changes in the volatility for each variable are primarily driven by a fundamentally different type of disturbance.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 415 Snow Hall, Lawrence, KS 66045|
Phone: (785) 864-3501
Fax: (785) 864-5270
Web page: http://www2.ku.edu/~kuwpaper/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005.
"Can Long-Run Restrictions Identify Technology Shocks?,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1237-1278, December.
- Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2004. "Can Long-Run Restrictions Identify Technology Shocks?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 3, Society for Computational Economics.
- Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher J. Gust, 2004. "Can long-run restrictions identify technology shocks?," International Finance Discussion Papers 792, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Nason James M. & Smith Gregor W, 2008.
"Great Moderation(s) and US Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-33, November.
- James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2007. "Great Moderation(s) and U.S. Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence," Working Papers 1140, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "Great moderations and U.S. interest rates: unconditional evidence," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994.
"When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-353, July.
- Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009.
"Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy,"
Quaderni di Dipartimento
097, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
- Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009. "Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle, and Indeterminacy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1557-1584, December.
- Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2007. "Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy," Kiel Working Papers 1332, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2005. "Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy," Working Papers 93, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005.
- Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009. "Trend inflation, Taylor principle and indeterminacy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 708, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Identifying the Sources of Instabilities in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1186-1204, November.
- Lutz Kilian, 2013.
"Structural vector autoregressions,"
in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- John W. Keating & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2012.
WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS
201202, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
- Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2006.
"On the sources of the Great Moderation,"
Economics Working Papers
1041, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2007.
- Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2009. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-57, January.
- Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2007. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
- Keating, John W. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2015.
"The Time-Varying Effects Of Permanent And Transitory Shocks To Real Output,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(03), pages 477-507, April.
- John W. Keating & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2012. "The Time Varying Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to Real Output," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201203, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
- Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32.
- Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005.
"Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth,"
RBA Annual Conference Volume,
in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle
Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2006. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," NBER Working Papers 11946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:201204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jianbo Zhang)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.