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Is the recent low oil price attributable to the shale revolution?

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  • Bataa, Erdenebat
  • Park, Cheolbeom

Abstract

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that approximately 52% of total U.S. crude oil was produced from shale oil resources in 2015. We examine whether the recent low crude oil price is attributable to this shale revolution in the U.S., using a SVAR model with structural breaks. Our results reveal that U.S. supply shocks are important drivers of real oil price and, for example, explain approximately a quarter of the 73% decline between June 2014 and February 2016. Failure to consider statistically significant structural changes results in underestimating the role played by global supply shocks, while overestimating the role of the demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Bataa, Erdenebat & Park, Cheolbeom, 2017. "Is the recent low oil price attributable to the shale revolution?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 72-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:72-82
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.08.011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil market; Structural breaks; U.S. shale revolution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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