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Euro area longer-term inflation expectations revisited

Author

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  • Byrne, David

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Zekaite, Zivile

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

This Letter examines recent dynamics in ination expectations, which are an important determinant of actual ination, as they impact economic decisions, such as households’ spending decisions and rms’ pricing plans. It is therefore important that expectations are well-anchored and that longer-term expectations are at levels consistent with the Eurosystem’s ination objective and insensitive to shocks to the economy or prices. We show some evidence for weaker anchoring since 2013 through increased sensitivity to shocks. As both the ination risk premium and the expected level of ination have declined more recently, monetary policymakers should continue monitoring developments in ination expectations closely.

Suggested Citation

  • Byrne, David & Zekaite, Zivile, 2019. "Euro area longer-term inflation expectations revisited," Economic Letters 12/EL/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:ecolet:12/el/19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    2. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.

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