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Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO 2016) Road from Paris



This report examines the effects on greenhouse gases emissions and energy markets of a Reference scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, of two scenarios where the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions have been included, and of a 2°C scenario in line with keeping global warming below the limits agreed in international negotiations. The report presents an updated version of the modelling work that supported by DG CLIMA in the UNFCCC negotiations that resulted in the Paris Agreement of the COP21 in December 2015. In the Reference scenario, emissions trigger global warming above 3°C. In the INDC scenarios, regions adopt domestic policies that result in global changes in emissions and energy use, and would result in the long term in a global warming around 3°C; the INDCs cover 28-44% of the cumulated emissions reductions necessary to remain below a 2°C warming. In the 2°C scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. Reduction of non-CO2 emissions (34% in 2030), energy efficiency (20%) and the deployment of renewable energies (20%) are the main options contributing in the mitigation effort. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments. GDP growth rates are marginally affected in most regions by global efforts to reduce emissions. Crucially, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. Delaying actions to stay below 2°C add large economic costs. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Alban Kitous & Kimon Keramidas & Toon Vandyck & Bert Saveyn, 2016. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO 2016) Road from Paris," JRC Research Reports JRC101899, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
  • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc101899

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Policy Research Notes (PRNs) 94725, The World Bank.
    2. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 131-158.
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Parisi & Tévécia Ronzon, 2016. "A global view of bio-based industries: benchmarking and monitoring their economic importance and future developments," JRC Research Reports JRC103038, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    2. Thube, Sneha D. & Delzeit, Ruth & Henning, Christian H.C.A., 2022. "Economic gains from global cooperation in fulfilling climate pledges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    3. Böhringer, Christoph & Peterson, Sonja & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Schneider, Jan & Winkler, Malte, 2021. "Climate policies after Paris: Pledge, Trade and Recycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    4. Christoph Boehringer & Sonja Peterson & Thomas F. Rutherford & Jan Schneider & Malte Winkler, 2021. "Climate Policies after Paris: Pledge, Trade and Recycle Insights from the 36th Energy Modeling Forum Study (EMF36)," Working Papers V-434-21, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised May 2021.
    5. Patrick Criqui & Sandrine Mathy, 2016. "The pragmatic approach of the Paris Agreement: The role of INDCs and deep decarbonization pathways," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(3), pages 79-87.
    6. Winkler, Malte Björn Johannes & Peterson, Sonja & Thube, Sneha, 2021. "Gains associated with linking the EU and Chinese ETS under different assumptions on restrictions, allowance endowments, and international trade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Wu, Libo & Zhang, Shuaishuai & Qian, Haoqi, 2022. "Distributional effects of China's National Emissions Trading Scheme with an emphasis on sectoral coverage and revenue recycling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    8. Chepeliev, Maksym & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2021. "Distributional impacts of carbon pricing policies under the Paris Agreement: Inter and intra-regional perspectives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    9. Hans Jensen & Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Thomas Fellmann & Paul Lirette & Jordan Hristov & George Philippidis, 2019. "Economic Impacts of a Low Carbon Economy on Global Agriculture: The Bumpy Road to Paris," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-17, April.

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    More about this item


    Climate; mitigation; GHG emissions; energy; international negotiations; COP21; Road to Paris; IPCC; UNFCCC; modelling; GEM-E3; POLES;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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