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Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Oya Celasun
  • Mr. Lev Ratnovski
  • Miss Roxana Mihet

Abstract

U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Oya Celasun & Mr. Lev Ratnovski & Miss Roxana Mihet, 2012. "Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2012/089, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/089
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Fernandez, Viviana, 2020. "The predictive power of convenience yields," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Binder, Carola Conces, 2018. "Inflation expectations and the price at the pump," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
    4. Koehler-Geib,Fritzi & Hnatkovska,Viktoria, 2015. "Business cycles accounting for Paraguay," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7284, The World Bank.
    5. Robert G Murphy & Adam Rohde, 2018. "Rational Bias in Inflation Expectations," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 153-171, January.
    6. Ateeque Anwer, 2024. "How Oil Price Shocks Influence on Inflation Rate? Evidence from Malaysian Economy," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(2), pages 350-356.
    7. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2017. "Volatility of commodity futures prices and market-implied inflation expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 133-141.
    8. Karolina Tura-Gawron & Maria Siranova & Karol Fisikowski, 2018. "ARE CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AN INTERNATIONAL PHENOMENON? Results of spatial panel regressions models," GUT FME Working Paper Series A 50, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology.

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