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Inflation expectations and the great recession

  • Petra Gerlach
  • Peter Hördahl
  • Richhild Moessner

This article examines whether short-run inflation expectations and indicators of long-term credibility have been affected by the great recession and by the policies to counter it. Measures of short-run expectations dropped in the crisis, particularly in advanced economies, but have since rebounded. Measures of long-run inflation expectations have in general fluctuated around a relatively stable level, suggesting continued central bank credibility. At the same time, dispersion and uncertainty measures of long-term inflation expectations are somewhat higher than before the crisis, raising questions about how firmly expectations are anchored.

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Article provided by Bank for International Settlements in its journal BIS Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): (March)

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Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1103f
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  1. Gabriele Galati & Steven Poelhekke & Chen Zhou, 2009. "Did the crisis affect inflation expectations?," DNB Working Papers 222, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Charles F. Manski & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2009. "Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation," Staff Reports 415, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2010. "Inflation risk premia in the US and the euro area," BIS Working Papers 325, Bank for International Settlements.
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