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Dispersion of inflation expectations in the European Union during the global financial crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Acedanski

    (University of Economics in Katowice)

  • Julia Wlodarczyk

    (University of Economics in Katowice)

Abstract

Inflation expectations, both their median and dispersion, are of a great importance to the effectiveness of monetary policy. The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of the global financial crisis on dispersion of inflation expectations in the European Union. Using European Commission’s survey data, we find that in the early phase of the crisis the dispersion dropped rapidly but then, after Lehman Brothers’ collapse, the trend reversed and these fluctuations cannot be explained by movements of inflation rates and other commonly used factors. We also observe that, in the new European Union member states, the initial drop of the dispersion was weaker whereas the subsequent rise was stronger as compared to the old member states.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Acedanski & Julia Wlodarczyk, 2015. "Dispersion of inflation expectations in the European Union during the global financial crisis," Working Papers 145/2015, Institute of Economic Research, revised May 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:wpaper:2015:no145
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Aleksandra Rutkowska & Magdalena Szyszko, 2022. "New DTW Windows Type for Forward- and Backward-Lookingness Examination. Application for Inflation Expectation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 701-718, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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