Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Note: This paper is part of http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/view/schriftenreihen/sr-3.html
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Becker, Christoph & Duersch, Peter & Eife, Thomas, 2023. "Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0727, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
References listed on IDEAS
- Charles F. Manski, 2018.
"Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise,"
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 411-471.
- Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 411-471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2014.
"The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 5-44, March.
- Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2013. "The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2013. "The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence," CeRP Working Papers 134, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
- Engelberg, Joseph & Manski, Charles F. & Williams, Jared, 2009.
"Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 30-41.
- Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2006. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 11978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Becker, Christoph & Dürsch, Peter & Eife, Thomas A. & Glas, Alexander, 2022. "Extending the procedure of Engelberg et al. (2009) to surveys with varying interval-widths," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2022, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
- Wändi Bruine De Bruin & Charles F. Manski & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2011.
"Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 454-478, April.
- Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Charles F. Manski & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2009. "Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation," Staff Reports 415, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022.
"Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2019. "Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 7464, CESifo.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2019. "Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 25482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
- Crosetto, Paolo & de Haan, Thomas, 2023.
"Comparing input interfaces to elicit belief distributions,"
Judgment and Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18, pages 1-1, January.
- Paolo Crosetto & Thomas De Haan, 2022. "Comparing input interfaces to elicit belief distributions," Working Papers 2022-01, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
- Paolo Crosetto & Thomas de Haan, 2023. "Comparing input interfaces to elicit belief distributions," Post-Print hal-04263759, HAL.
- Paolo Crosetto & Thomas de Haan, 2022. "Comparing input interfaces to elicit belief distributions," Working Papers halshs-03816349, HAL.
- Michael Woodford, 2005.
"Central bank communication and policy effectiveness,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
- Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 11898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Kieren, Pascal & Trautmann, Stefan, 2024. "A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 0742, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Becker, Christoph & Dürsch, Peter & Eife, Thomas A. & Glas, Alexander, 2023.
"Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes,"
FAU Discussion Papers in Economics
01/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
- Becker, Christoph & Dürsch, Peter & Eife, Thomas A. & Glas, Alexander, 2023. "Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-072, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Tambalotti, Andrea & Topa, Giorgio, 2022.
"Subjective intertemporal substitution,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 118-133.
- Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Andrea Tambalotti & Giorgio Topa, 2015. "Subjective Intertemporal Substitution," Staff Reports 734, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Stefano Eusepi & Giorgio Topa & Andrea Tambalotti & Richard Crump, 2016. "Subjective Intertemporal Substitution," 2016 Meeting Papers 83, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Becker, Christoph & Dürsch, Peter & Eife, Thomas A. & Glas, Alexander, 2023.
"Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
23-072, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Becker, Christoph & Dürsch, Peter & Eife, Thomas A. & Glas, Alexander, 2023. "Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 01/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
- Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2023.
"IQ, Expectations, and Choice,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2292-2325.
- D'Acunto, Francesco & Hoang, Daniel & Paloviita, Maritta & Weber, Michael, 2019. "IQ, expectations, and choice," Working Paper Series in Economics 127, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
- D'Acunto, Francesco & Hoang, Daniel & Paloviita, Maritta & Weber, Michael, 2019. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2019, Bank of Finland.
- Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2019. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," NBER Working Papers 25496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abe, Naohito & Ueno, Yuko, 2016. "The Mechanism of Inflation Expectation Formation among Consumers," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP16-1, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Dovern, Jonas & Müller, Lena Sophia & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2020.
"How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey,"
Working Papers
15, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
- Jonas Dovern & Lena Sophia Müller & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-Scale Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 8179, CESifo.
- Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020.
"How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
- Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2018. "How do expectations about the macroeconomy affect personal expectations and behavior?," IMFS Working Paper Series 128, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2018. "How Do Expectations About the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7154, CESifo.
- Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla & Michael Lamla, 2023.
"Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
10709, CESifo.
- Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J., 2023. "Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-714, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Kieren, Pascal & Trautmann, Stefan, 2024. "A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 0742, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2015.
"Inflation Expectations And Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act On Their Beliefs?,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 505-536, May.
- Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Inflation expectations and behavior: Do survey respondents act on their beliefs?," Staff Reports 509, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Olivier Armantier & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on Their Beliefs?," Liberty Street Economics 20110727, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021.
"Narratives about the Macroeconomy,"
ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series
127, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
- Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2022_350, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
- Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart & Ingar K. Haaland, 2023. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10535, CESifo.
- Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," CEBI working paper series 21-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
- Roth, Christopher & Andre, Peter & Haaland, Ingar & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2022. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 17305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Olivier Armantier & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2017.
"An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations,"
Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 51-72.
- Olivier Armantier & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations," Staff Reports 800, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Tao Wang, 2023. "Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models," Staff Working Papers 23-59, Bank of Canada.
- Dovern, Jonas & Müller, Lena Sophia & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2023.
"Local information and firm expectations about aggregates,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-13.
- Jonas Dovern & Lena Sophia Müller & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2022. "Local Information and Firm Expectations about Aggregates," CESifo Working Paper Series 9826, CESifo.
- Arrondel, Luc & Calvo-Pardo, Hector & Giannitsarou, Chryssi & Haliassos, Michael, 2022.
"Informative social interactions,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 246-263.
- Michael Haliassos & Hector F. CALVO PARDO & Chryssi Giannitsarou & Luc Arrondel, 2016. "Informative Social Interactions," 2016 Meeting Papers 636, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Arrondel, L. & Calvo-Pardo, H. & Giannitsarou, C. & Haliassos, M., 2019. "Informative Social Interactions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1911, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Arrondel, Luc & Calvo-Pardo, Hector & Giannitsarou, Chryssi & Haliassos, Michael, 2019. "Informative social interactions," IMFS Working Paper Series 136, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Haliassos, Michael & Arrondel, Luc & Calvo Pardo, Héctor & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2022. "Informative Social Interactions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14840, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & van Rooij, Maarten & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim, 2022.
"Dynamics and heterogeneity of subjective stock market expectations,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 213-231.
- Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim & van Rooij, Maarten, 2019. "Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Subjective Stock Market Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 157, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
- Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2022.
"Household spending and fiscal support during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a new consumer survey,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 1-14.
- Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2022. "Household spending and fiscal support during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from a new consumer survey," Working Paper Series 2643, European Central Bank.
- Zhao, Yongchen, 2023. "Internal consistency of household inflation expectations: Point forecasts vs. density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1713-1735.
- Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2023.
"Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 457-481, June.
- Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Mitchell, James, 2020. "Real-Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," EMF Research Papers 35, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Bańnkowska, Katarzyna & Borlescu, Ana Maria & Charalambakis, Evangelos & Da Silva, António Dias & Di Laurea, Davide & Dossche, Maarten & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Honkkila, Juha & Kennedy, Neale & Kenny, 2021. "ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: an overview and first evaluation," Occasional Paper Series 287, European Central Bank.
- Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Pomerantz, Rachel & Skandalis, Daphné & Smith, Kyle & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021.
"How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 443-469.
- Olivier Armantier & Gizem Koşar & Rachel Pomerantz & Daphne Skandalis & Kyle Smith & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2020. "How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," Staff Reports 949, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
More about this item
Keywords
density forecast; Inflation; Experiment;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0723. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabi Rauscher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/awheide.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.