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Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts

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  • Becker, Christoph
  • Duersch, Peter
  • Eife, Thomas

Abstract

In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges of inflation. We show in two large-scale experiments that responses vary when we modify the response scale. Asking an identical question with modified response scales induces different answers: Shifting, compressing or expanding the scale leads to shifted, compressed and expanded forecasts. Mean forecast, uncertainty, and disagreement can change by several percentage points. We discuss implications for survey design and how central banks can adjust the response scales during times of high inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Becker, Christoph & Duersch, Peter & Eife, Thomas, 2023. "Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0723, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0723
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    Cited by:

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    3. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Kieren, Pascal & Trautmann, Stefan, 2024. "A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 0742, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    4. Becker, Christoph Karl & Duersch, Peter & Eife, Thomas & Glas, Alexander, 2025. "Personalizing probabilistic survey scales," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    5. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Kieren, Pascal & Trautmann, Stefan T., 2025. "A choice-based approach to the measurement of inflation expectations," Discussion Papers 25/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Gonzalez-Fernandez, Pedro & Bosch-Rosa, Ciril & Meissner, Thomas, 2025. "Direct Elicitation of Parametric Belief Distributions: An application to inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    7. Becker, Christoph & Dürsch, Peter & Eife, Thomas A. & Glas, Alexander, 2023. "Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-072, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Pavlova, Lora, 2025. "Framing effects in consumer expectations surveys," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).

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