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The macroeconomics of oil shocks

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  • Keith Sill

Abstract

For various reasons, oil-price increases may lead to significant slowdowns in economic growth. Five of the last seven U.S. recessions were preceded by significant increases in the price of oil. In “The Macroeconomics of Oil Shocks,” Keith Sill examines the effect of changes in oil prices on U.S. economic activity, focusing on how runups in the price of oil can affect output growth and inflation. He also discusses the channels by which oil-price increases might affect the economy and the historical evidence on the relationship between oil prices, economic growth, and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith Sill, 2007. "The macroeconomics of oil shocks," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 21-31.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:2007:i:q1:p:21-31
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    File URL: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/business-review/2007/q1/br_q1-2007-3_oil-shocks.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aghababa, Hajar & Barnett, William A., 2016. "Dynamic structure of the spot price of crude oil: does time aggregation matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 227-237.
    2. Bettina Lis & Christian Neßler & Jan Retzmann, 2012. "Oil and Cars: The Impact of Crude Oil Prices on the Stock Returns of Automotive Companies," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 190-200.
    3. Berna Aydogan & Istemi Berk, 2015. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Stock Returns: Evidences from Turkish Stock Market under Global Liquidity Conditions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 54-68.
    4. Heidari, Hassan & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar, 2016. "بررسی اثرگذاری واردات کالاهای مصرفی، واسطه‌ای و سرمایه‌ای در روند انتقال نوسانات قیمت نفت خام به بخش صنعت و معدن در ایران
      [Effects of the Import of Consumption, Intermediate and Capital Goods on Tr
      ," MPRA Paper 79236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
    6. repec:eee:jrpoli:v:61:y:2019:i:c:p:423-432 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korcek, 2015. "Investigation of Driving Forces of Energy Consumption in European Union 28 Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 422-432.
    8. Roc Armenter, 2011. "Output gaps: uses and limitation," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 1-8.
    9. Ediger, Volkan S. & Berk, Istemi, 2011. "Crude oil import policy of Turkey: Historical analysis of determinants and implications since 1968," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2132-2142, April.
    10. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Thompson, Mark A., 2010. "Re-examining the dynamic causal oil-macroeconomy relationship," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 298-305, September.
    11. Ýstemi Berk & Ý. Hakan Yetkiner, 2013. "Energy Prices and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence in the Long Run," Working Papers 1303, Izmir University of Economics.
    12. repec:eco:journ2:2017-03-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Al-mulali, Usama & Che Sab, Normee, 2009. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Real Exchange Rate of the Dirham: a Case Study of the United Arab Emirates," MPRA Paper 23493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ahmed, Khalid & Bhutto, Niaz Ahmed & Kalhoro, Muhammad Ramzan, 2017. "Decomposing the links between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from SAARC region," MPRA Paper 84901, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Oya Celasun & Lev Ratnovski & Roxana Mihet, 2012. "Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States," IMF Working Papers 12/89, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Berk, Istemi & Aydogan, Berna, 2012. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkish Stock Market under Global Liquidity Conditions," EWI Working Papers 2012-15, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    17. repec:eee:energy:v:139:y:2017:i:c:p:975-990 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Berk, Istemi & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2014. "Energy prices and economic growth in the long run: Theory and evidence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 228-235.
    19. Iwayemi, Akin & Fowowe, Babajide, 2011. "Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 603-612, February.

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    Keywords

    Petroleum products - Prices;

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