IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/79236.html

بررسی اثرگذاری واردات کالاهای مصرفی، واسطه‌ای و سرمایه‌ای در روند انتقال نوسانات قیمت نفت خام به بخش صنعت و معدن در ایران
[Effects of the Import of Consumption, Intermediate and Capital Goods on Transmission of Crude Oil Price Volatility to the Industry and Mining Sector in Iran]

Author

Listed:
  • Heidari, Hassan
  • Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz
  • Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar

Abstract

In this research, the DCC model is estimated to calculate dynamic correlation series between crude oil price and growth of Industry and Mine sector during 1367:1-1392:4. Then, Macroeconomic variables which can explain the dynamic correlation are analyzed as variables of contagion. So, the import, as an effective and affected variable from crude oil price, is separated to real import of consumption, capital and intermediate goods. We apply an MSIXH (2)-ARX (0,0) model to investigate the effects of explaining variables. Our results show that imports of intermediate goods have a positive effect and imports of consumption goods have a negative effect on correlation series. These results suggest that in order to increase Industry and Mine sector growth, increase in import of intermediate goods, reduction in government consumption expenditure and implementing policies to stabilize the general price level and government consumption expenditure against changes in oil prices are necessary.

Suggested Citation

  • Heidari, Hassan & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar, 2016. "بررسی اثرگذاری واردات کالاهای مصرفی، واسطه‌ای و سرمایه‌ای در روند انتقال نوسانات قیمت نفت خام به بخش صنعت و معدن در ایران [Effects of the Import of Consumption, Intermediate and Capital Goods on Transmission of Crude Oil Price Volatility to the In," MPRA Paper 79236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79236
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79236/1/epprjournal-v2n2p195-fa.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    2. Tang, Weiqi & Wu, Libo & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2010. "Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 3-14, September.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2011. "Crude oil hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 912-923, September.
    5. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Forecasting energy market volatility using GARCH models: Can multivariate models beat univariate models?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2167-2181.
    6. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    7. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    8. Demachi, Kazue, 2012. "The effect of crude oil price change and volatility on Nigerian economy," MPRA Paper 41413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    10. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    11. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    12. Darby, Michael R, 1982. "The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 738-751, September.
    13. Ana Gómez-Loscos & Mar𨀠 Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañ鳠, 2012. "Economic growth, inflation and oil shocks: are the 1970s coming back?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(35), pages 4575-4589, December.
    14. Keith Sill, 2007. "The macroeconomics of oil shocks," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 21-31.
    15. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
    16. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Hsu, Kai-Wei, 2012. "Reverse globalization: Does high oil price volatility discourage international trade?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1634-1643.
    17. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
    18. Gabriela Mundaca, 2013. "Oil prices and exchange rate volatility in Arab countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 41-47, January.
    19. Naifar, Nader & Al Dohaiman, Mohammed Saleh, 2013. "Nonlinear analysis among crude oil prices, stock markets' return and macroeconomic variables," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 416-431.
    20. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
    21. John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, September.
    22. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 221-222, October.
    23. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    24. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
    25. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heidari, Hassan & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz, 2015. "How Do Different Oil Price Shocks Affect the Relationship Between Oil and Stock Markets?," MPRA Paper 80273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2016.
    2. Heidari, Hassan & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz, 2014. "بررسی تأثیر نااطمینانی قیمت نفت خام بر رشد بخش صنعت و معدن در ایران کاربردی از مدل‌های تبدیل مارکف [Investigation of the Effect of Crude Oil Price Uncertainty on the Growth of Industry and Mine Sector in Iran: An Application of Markov-Switching Mo," MPRA Paper 79228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar & Heidari, Hassan, 2013. "تفكيك اثرات منشأ شوك‌هاي نفتي بر همبستگی پویای بین رشد بخش صنعت و معدن و قیمت نفت خام در ایران [Separation of the Effects of Oil Price Shocks Origin on Dynamic Correlation between Growth of Industr," MPRA Paper 79257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Heidari, Hassan & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz, 2013. "عوامل مؤثر بر انتقال نوسانات قیمت نفت خام به رشد بخش صنعت و معدن در ایران رهیافتی از مدل‌های تبدیل مارکف [Crude Oil Price Contagion to the Growth of Industry and Mine Sector in Iran: An Approach to Markov-Switching Models]," MPRA Paper 79234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Heidorn, Thomas & Van Huellen, Sophie & Ruehl, C. & Woebbeking, F., 2017. "The long- and short-run impact of oil price changes on major global economies," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 225, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    6. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    7. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Zulfigarov, Farid & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2020. "The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    10. Alom, Fardous, 2011. "Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks in Asia and Pacific Countries: An Application of SVAR Model," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    11. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    12. Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Wang, Zhen & Wesseh, Presley K. & Tutdel, Isaac Yak Repha, 2017. "The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 975-990.
    13. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    15. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    16. Ju, Keyi & Su, Bin & Zhou, Dequn & Wu, Junmin & Liu, Lifan, 2016. "Macroeconomic performance of oil price shocks: Outlier evidence from nineteen major oil-related countries/regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-332.
    17. Shahrestani, Parnia & Rafei, Meysam, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks on Tehran Stock Exchange returns: Application of the Markov switching vector autoregressive models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Nicola Rubino, "undated". "Cointegration Between Economic Activity And Oil Prices In The Opec Countries; A Time Series Approach," Review of Socio - Economic Perspectives 201709, Reviewsep.
    19. Farid Zulfigarov & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2019. "Azerbaijan and its Oil Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Research Papers in Economics 2019-11, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    20. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2011. "Oil revenue shocks and government spending behavior in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1055-1069.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.