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“Still" an Agnostic Procedure to Identify Monetary Policy Shocks with Sign Restrictions

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  • Bruno Perdigão

Abstract

In this paper I use prominent models as a laboratory to analyze the performance of different identification strategies and propose the introduction of new model consistent restrictions to identify monetary policy shocks in SVARs. In particular, besides standard sign restrictions on interest rates and inflation, the inability of monetary policy to have real effects ten years after the shock is proposed as an additional identification restriction. Evidence is presented of the model consistency of this neutrality restriction both for the canonical three-equation new Keynesian model and the Smets and Wouters (2007) model. In a simple empirical application, I show that this restriction may be important to recover real effects of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Perdigão, 2019. "“Still" an Agnostic Procedure to Identify Monetary Policy Shocks with Sign Restrictions," Working Papers Series 494, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:494
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    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps494.pdf
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    1. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    2. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J. & McGrattan, Ellen R., 2008. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1337-1352, November.
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