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The impact of COVID-19 on global financial markets: A multiscale volatility spillover analysis

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  • Cheng, Zishu
  • Li, Mingchen
  • Cui, Ruhong
  • Wei, Yunjie
  • Wang, Shouyang
  • Hong, Yongmiao

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive multiscale analysis of volatility spillover mechanisms among diverse financial markets utilizing a novel combination of Normalized Adaptive Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition (NA-MEMD) and Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. Our analysis spans Bitcoin, crude oil, gold, foreign exchange, emerging stock markets, and developed stock markets, examining their respective roles in global volatility transmission. Utilizing the NA-MEMD methodology and a time-varying volatility spillover index, we find that in the short-term, Bitcoin and crude oil primarily act as volatility receivers, while other markets serve as volatility transmitters. Over the long-term, gold and Bitcoin consistently act as volatility receivers, with Bitcoin and gold showing evident safe-haven effects, while the remaining markets primarily function as volatility transmitters. Particularly post-COVID-19, developed stock markets emerge as significant transmitters of volatility, largely directed towards the crude oil market. By evaluating and comparing risk transmission patterns among financial markets before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, our findings offer valuable insights that can assist policymakers and other stakeholders in managing financial uncertainty in times of global crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Zishu & Li, Mingchen & Cui, Ruhong & Wei, Yunjie & Wang, Shouyang & Hong, Yongmiao, 2024. "The impact of COVID-19 on global financial markets: A multiscale volatility spillover analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:95:y:2024:i:pb:s1057521924003867
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103454
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    Keywords

    Volatility spillover; Multiscale analysis; Financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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