IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfe/zbefri/v33y2015i1p11-35.html

Revisiting the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers

Author

Listed:
  • Nurtac Yildirim

    (Istanbul University Beyazit Campus, Faculty of Economics, Department of Economics, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Oguzhan Ozcelebi

    (Istanbul University Beyazit Campus, Faculty of Economics, Department of Economics, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Seval Oral Ozkan

    (Istanbul University Beyazit Campus, Faculty of Economics, Department of Economics, Istanbul, Turkey)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to test the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers. For that purpose, we estimate structural vector error correction (SVEC) models to show the impacts of oil price increases on industrial production, consumer prices and immediate interest rates which are the elements of Taylor rule for the four largest oil importers (the USA, the EU, China and Japan). Our results indicate that oil price increases transmit to output and inflation and lead to fluctuations in industrial production, consumer prices and immediate interest rates which in turn influence the monetary policy stance in the following periods. The basic conclusion of research is that the channels through which oil prices affect output, inflation and interest rates should be identified by the monetary policy authorities of the USA, the EU, China and Japan. We also emphasize the importance of the determination of the optimal monetary policy framework to eliminate the negative consequences of oil price increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Nurtac Yildirim & Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Seval Oral Ozkan, 2015. "Revisiting the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 33(1), pages 11-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:33:y:2015:i:1:p:11-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.efri.uniri.hr/sites/efri.uniri.hr/files/cr-collections/2/06-yildirim-ozcelebi-ozkan-2015-1-1434447172.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    3. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Robert Lerman, 2006. "Recycling petrodollars," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Dec).
    4. François Lescaroux & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables," Working Papers 2008-05, CEPII research center.
    5. Gisser, Micha & Goodwin, Thomas H, 1986. "Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 95-103, February.
    6. Knut Are Aastveit, 2013. "Oil price shocks and monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Working Paper 2013/10, Norges Bank.
    7. Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 470-504, December.
    8. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    9. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Kabundi, Alain, 2015. "Monetary Policy Instrument and Inflation in South Africa: Structural Vector Error Correction Model Approach," MPRA Paper 63731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a time trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 177-198, March.
    11. Kazi, Umarfaruk A., 1989. "An exploratory stochastic framework to analyse the relationship between macro oil price shocks and economic development," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 228-238, July.
    12. Anna Kormilitsina, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 199-223, January.
    13. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1302, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-484, June.
    16. Prachowny,Martin F. J., 1986. "Money in the Macroeconomy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521315944, January.
    17. Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, August.
    18. Mr. Tobias N. Rasmussen & Agustin Roitman, 2011. "Oil Shocks in a Global Perspective: Are they Really That Bad?," IMF Working Papers 2011/194, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2016. "Poland as an inflation nutter:The story of successful output stabilization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 363-392.
    2. Dejan Živkov & Jovan Njegiæ & Mirela Momèiloviæ, 2018. "Bidirectional spillover effect between Russian stock index and the selected commodities," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 29-53.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.
    3. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Virjinia Jeliazkova, 2010. "Effects of the Dynamics of the Oil Price – Theoretical and Empirical Bases," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 127-165.
    5. Ahmed, Khalid & Bhutto, Niaz Ahmed & Kalhoro, Muhammad Ramzan, 2019. "Decomposing the links between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from SAARC region," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 423-432.
    6. Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY, 2013. "The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(11), pages 730-739.
    7. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    8. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2014. "Oil prices and the economy: A global perspective," MPRA Paper 59407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Heidari, Hassan & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz, 2015. "How Do Different Oil Price Shocks Affect the Relationship Between Oil and Stock Markets?," MPRA Paper 80273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2016.
    10. Wu, Man-Hwa & Ni, Yen-Sen, 2011. "The effects of oil prices on inflation, interest rates and money," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4158-4164.
    11. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    12. Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Wang, Zhen & Wesseh, Presley K. & Tutdel, Isaac Yak Repha, 2017. "The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 975-990.
    13. Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & Tran Ngoc Tho & Dinh Thi Thu Hong, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price on the Growth, Inflation, Unemployment and Budget Deficit of Vietnam," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 42-49.
    14. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    16. B. Anand & Sunil Paul & M. Ramachandran, 2014. "Volatility Spillover between Oil and Stock Market Returns," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 37-56.
    17. Herath, Nisal, . "Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Sri Lankan Economy: A Vector Auto Regression Assessment," Sri Lankan Journal of Agricultural Economics, Sri Lanka Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA), vol. 16, pages 1-33.
    18. Shigeki Ono, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in BRICs," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 29-45, June.
    19. Liping Gao & Hyeongwoo Kim & Richard Saba, 2013. "How Does the Oil Price Shock Affect Consumers?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    20. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2011. "Dynamic relationships between the price of oil, gold and financial variables in Japan: a bounds testing approach," MPRA Paper 33030, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:33:y:2015:i:1:p:11-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Danijela Ujcic (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efrijhr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.