Return distribution predictability and its implications for portfolio selection
The inquiries to return predictability are traditionally limited to conditional mean, while literature on portfolio selection is replete with moment-based analysis with up to the fourth moment being considered. This paper develops a distribution-based framework for both return prediction and portfolio selection. More specifically, a time-varying return distribution is modeled through quantile regressions and copulas, using quantile regressions to extract information in marginal distributions and copulas to capture dependence structure. A preference function which captures higher moments is proposed for portfolio selection. An empirical application highlights the additional information provided by the distributional approach which cannot be captured by the traditional moment-based methods.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Manfred Gilli & Evis Këllezi & Hilda Hysi, .
"A Data-Driven Optimization Heuristic for Downside Risk Minimization,"
Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series
06-02, Swiss Finance Institute.
- M. Gilli & E. Kellezi & H. Hysi, 2006. "A Data-Driven Optimization Heuristic for Downside Risk Minimization," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 355, Society for Computational Economics.
- Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
- Chow, Edward H & Lee, Wayne Y & Solt, Michael E, 1997. "The Exchange-Rate Risk Exposure of Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(1), pages 105-23, January.
- K. Kerstens, 2005.
"Mean-Variance Skewness Portfolio Performance Gauging:A General Shortage Function and Dual Approach,"
- Walter Briec & Kristiaan Kerstens & Octave Jokung, 2007. "Mean-Variance-Skewness Portfolio Performance Gauging: A General Shortage Function and Dual Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(1), pages 135-149, January.
- Walter Briec & Kristiaan Kerstens & Octave Jokung, 2005. "Mean-Variance-Skewness Portfolio Performance Gauging: A General Shortage Function and Dual Approach," Working Papers 2005-ECO-05, IESEG School of Management.
- W. Briec & K. Kerstens & O. Jokung, 2007. "Mean-variance-skewness portfolio performance gauging: A general shortage function and dual approach," Post-Print hal-00211572, HAL.
- Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010.
2010-04, Banco de México.
- Koenker, Roger & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1982. "Robust Tests for Heteroscedasticity Based on Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 43-61, January.
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2008.
"International asset allocation under regime switching, skew, and kurtosis preferences,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 889-935, April.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "International asset allocation under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005.
"In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?," Working Paper Series 0195, European Central Bank.
- de Athayde, Gustavo M. & Flores, Renato Jr., 2004. "Finding a maximum skewness portfolio--a general solution to three-moments portfolio choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1335-1352, April.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,"
Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
- Mencía, Javier & Sentana, Enrique, 2009.
"Multivariate location-scale mixtures of normals and mean-variance-skewness portfolio allocation,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 105-121, December.
- Enrique Sentana & Javier Mencía, 2008. "Multivariate Location-Scale Mixtures Of Normals And Mean-Variance-Skwness Portfolio Allocation," Working Papers wp2008_0805, CEMFI.
- Javier Mencía & Enrique Sentana, 2009. "Multivariate location-scale mixtures of normals and mean-variance-skewness portfolio allocation," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0909, Banco de Espa�a.
- Patrick L. Brockett & Yehuda Kahane, 1992. "Risk, Return, Skewness and Preference," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(6), pages 851-866, June.
- Kuan, Tsung-Han & Li, Chu-Shiu & Liu, Chwen-Chi, 2012. "Corporate governance and cash holdings: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 303-314.
- Koenker,Roger, 2005.
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521608275, 1.
- Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2015.
"Predictable Return Distributions,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 114-132, 03.
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
- John H. Cochrane, 2006.
"The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability,"
NBER Working Papers
12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
- repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
- David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 821-862, February.
- Wang, You-Gan & Shao, Quanxi & Zhu, Min, 2009. "Quantile regression without the curse of unsmoothness," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(10), pages 3696-3705, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:209-223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.