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Is Sticky Price Adjustment Important for Output Fluctuations?

Author

Listed:
  • John W. Keating

    (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)

  • Isaac K. Kanyama

    (Department of Economics, University of Johannesburg)

Abstract

We find that shocks with no immediate effect on the price level explain essentially all short-run variance of aggregate output while shocks that immediately affect price explain virtually none of that variance. Similar findings are obtained with aggregate, sectoral and industry-level data, both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. With aggregate data, shocks that immediately raise the price level eventually cause output to fall while shocks that affect price with a lag immediately raise output and eventually cause the price level to rise. These responses combined with the variance decompositions suggest the short-run aggregate supply curve is nearly horizontal and the aggregate demand curve is nearly vertical. A statistical model that identifies shocks that don't affect prices for at least two months is also developed. Shocks with the slowest effect on prices explain essentially all of the short-run output variance in almost all cases. This robust finding is inconsistent with theories in which prices adjust rapidly to clear markets.

Suggested Citation

  • John W. Keating & Isaac K. Kanyama, 2013. "Is Sticky Price Adjustment Important for Output Fluctuations?," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201301, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:201301
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sticky price adjustment; aggregate supply and demand; moving average representation; identification restrictions.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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