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Monetary policy and the oil futures market

  • Eickmeier, Sandra
  • Lombardi, Marco J.

We assess the transmission of monetary policy shocks on oil prices using a VAR model. We identify monetary policy and financial activity shocks disentangled from demand and oil supply shocks using sign restrictions. We obtain the following main findings. (i) Monetary policy and financial activity shocks both have a significant effect on the oil price. (ii) Monetary policy has made large positive contributions to oil price growth in 2008. (iii) Monetary policy affects the oil price primarily through fundamental (supply and demand) channels rather than through financial activity.

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 35/2012.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:352012
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  1. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2007. "Some Issues in Using Sign Restrictions for Identifying Structural VARs," NCER Working Paper Series 14, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  2. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," NCER Working Paper Series 57, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  3. A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
  4. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F.Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Structural vector autoregressions: theory of identification and algorithms for inference," Working Paper 2008-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2009. "Oil and the Euro area economy," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 603-651, October.
  6. Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(4), pages 470-504, December.
  7. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, 04.
  8. Lombardi, Marco J. & Van Robays, Ine, 2011. "Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?," Working Paper Series 1346, European Central Bank.
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