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How do oil price forecast errors impact inflation forecast errors? An empirical analysis from French and US inflation forecasts

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Abstract

This paper proposes an empirical investigation of the impact of oil price forecast errors on inflation forecast errors for two different sets of recent forecasts data: the median of SPF inflation forecasts for the U.S. and the Central Bank inflation forecasts for France. Mainly two salient points emerge from our results. First, there is a significant contribution of oil price forecast errors to the explanation of inflation forecast errors, whatever the country or the period considered. Second, the pass-through of oil price forecast errors to inflation forecast errors is multiplied by around 2 when the oil price volatility is large.

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  • F. Bec & A. De Gaye, 2014. "How do oil price forecast errors impact inflation forecast errors? An empirical analysis from French and US inflation forecasts," Working papers 523, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:523
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    1. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast errors; Inflation rate; Oil price; Threshold model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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