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Consumption and Money Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound

Author

Listed:
  • Riyad Abubaker

    () (University of California, Riverside)

Abstract

With the recent financial crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced the nominal interest rate to nearly zero. This paper examines the impact of the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on the uncertainty of personal consumption and money stock. To calculate the second conditional moments as a proxy for uncertainty, the paper implements a multivariate GARCH model on U.S. personal consumption and real money balance from January 1980 to December 2014. A dummy variable is added to the variance equation. Here, the dummy variable takes 1 after the Fed encounters the ZLB constraint. Our main findings demonstrate that consumption uncertainty declines; and real money uncertainty increases significantly when the economy is constrained by the zero lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Riyad Abubaker, 2016. "Consumption and Money Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 449-463.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00406
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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2016/Volume36/EB-16-V36-I1-P46.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Günter Coenen & Anders Warne, 2014. "Risks to Price Stability, the Zero Lower Bound, and Forward Guidance: A Real-Time Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 7-54, June.
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    3. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2012. "Money and risk in a DSGE framework: A Bayesian application to the Eurozone," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 95-111.
    4. Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha & Daniel, Betty C., 2014. "The Inflation Target at the Zero Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 66096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gavin, William T. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2015. "The zero lower bound, the dual mandate, and unconventional dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 14-38.
    6. Junko Koeda, 2011. "Japanese Yield Curves In and Out of a Zero Rate Environmnet: A Macro-Finance Perspective," CARF F-Series CARF-F-254, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Nov 2011.
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    8. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 615-642, June.
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    12. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
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    14. Michael T. Kiley, 2014. "The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long‐Term Interest Rates Associated with Monetary Policy Statements: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 1057-1071, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Money; Multivariate GARCH;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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