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The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long‐Term Interest Rates Associated with Monetary Policy Statements: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound

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  • MICHAEL T. KILEY

Abstract

Monetary policy actions since 2008 have influenced long‐term interest rates through forward guidance and quantitative easing. I propose a strategy to identify the comovement between interest rate and equity price movements induced by monetary policy when an observable representing policy changes is not available. A decline in long‐term interest rates induced by monetary policy statements has a larger positive effect on equity prices prior to 2009 than in the subsequent period. This change appears to reflect the impact of the zero lower bound on short‐term interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael T. Kiley, 2014. "The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long‐Term Interest Rates Associated with Monetary Policy Statements: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 1057-1071, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:46:y:2014:i:5:p:1057-1071
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jmcb.12129
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422 Elsevier.
    2. Michael T. Kiley, 2014. "The Aggregate Demand Effects of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 69-104, December.
    3. Han Chen & Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 289-315, November.
    4. Andrés, Javier & López-Salido, J David & Nelson, Edward, 2004. "Tobin's Imperfect Asset Substitution in Optimizing General Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 4336, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How effective is quantitative easing in stimulating economic activity and raising inflation?
      by thebusinesscycleblog in The business cycle blog on 2016-05-10 03:24:10

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan A. Montecino & Gerald Epstein, 2015. "Did Quantitative Easing Increase Income Inequality?," Working Papers Series 28, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    2. repec:tpr:asiaec:v:15:y:2016:i:3:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Rogers, John H. & Scotti, Chiara & Wright, Jonathan H., 2014. "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Bhanupong Nidhiprabha, 2016. "Impacts of Quantitative Monetary Easing Policy in the United States and Japan on the Thai Economy," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(1), pages 80-102, March.
    5. Bhattarai, Saroj & Neely, Christopher J., 2016. "An Analysis of the Literature on International Unconventional Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2016-21, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 31 Oct 2018.
    6. Kiley, Michael T., 2016. "Monetary policy statements, treasury yields, and private yields: Before and after the zero lower bound," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 285-290.
    7. repec:eee:jbfina:v:90:y:2018:i:c:p:32-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Riyad Abubaker, 2016. "Consumption and Money Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 449-463.
    9. Doh, Taeyoung & Connolly, Michael, 2013. "Has the effect of monetary policy announcements on asset prices changed?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 31-65.
    10. Michael T. Kiley, 2018. "Quantitative Easing and the “New Normal” in Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-004, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.
    12. Edda Claus & Iris Claus & Leo Krippner, 2016. "Monetary Policy Spillovers across the Pacific when Interest Rates Are at the Zero Lower Bound," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 15(3), pages 1-27, Fall.
    13. Edda Claus & Iris Claus & Leo Krippner, 2014. "Asset markets and monetary policy shocks at the zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2014/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    14. Imran Shah & Francesca Schmidt-Fischer & Issam Malki, 2018. "The portfolio balance channel: an analysis on the impact of quantitative easing on the US stock market," Department of Economics Working Papers 74/18, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    15. Mario González & Raúl Tadle, 2018. "Monetary Policy Effects on the Chilean Stock Market: An Automated Content Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 817, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Ábel, István, 2015. "A monetáris politika globális tendenciái és a stabilitási kockázatok
      [Financial stability concerns and global exposure of monetary policy]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 284-304.
    17. McInish, Thomas & Neely, Christopher J. & Planchon, Jade, 2017. "Unconventional monetary Policy and Long Yields During QE1: Learning from the Shorts," Working Papers 2017-31, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Martijn Boermans & Robert Vermeulen, 2018. "Quantitative easing and preferred habitat investors in the euro area bond market," DNB Working Papers 586, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    19. Unalmis, Deren & Unalmis, Ibrahim, 2015. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Surprises on Asset Markets in the United States," MPRA Paper 62585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Wu, Wenbin, 2016. "Are financial markets less responsive to monetary policy shocks at the zero lower bound?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 258-261.
    21. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.

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