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The estimated macroeconomic effects of the Federal Reserve's large-scale Treasury purchase program

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  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer
  • Giovanni P. Olivei

Abstract

This brief examines an issue of current importance to the conduct of U.S. economic policy: how has the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) plan to purchase up to $600 billion of Treasury securities by June 30, 2011 affected the movement of inflation, GDP, and employment to more desirable medium-term and long-term levels? Following the FOMC's announcement of the plan on November 3, 2010, other events that potentially influence Treasury yields have been at play. To estimate the effects that the FOMC Treasury purchases may have on the goal of achieving more desirable levels of inflation and employment, the authors make use of different models to gauge the likely effect upon interest rates, the interest rate effects on real spending (GDP), and how changes in GDP may be affecting the employment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2011. "The estimated macroeconomic effects of the Federal Reserve's large-scale Treasury purchase program," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbpb:y:2011:n:11-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, February.
    2. Joseph E. Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian P. Sack, 2011. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 41-59.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kimura Takeshi & Nakajima Jouchi, 2016. "Identifying conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks: a latent threshold approach," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 277-300, January.
    2. Fuhrer, Jeff, 2017. "Expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence: Evidence from survey expectations in a dynamic macro model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 22-35.
    3. Paulo José Saraiva & Luiz Fernando De Paula & André De Melo Modenesi, 2016. "A Crise Financeira Americana E As Implicações Para A Política Monetária," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42ndd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 114, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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    Keywords

    Government securities ; Economic policy;

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