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Exchange rates, monetary policy statements, and uncovered interest parity: before and after the zero lower bound

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  • Michael T. Kiley

Abstract

While uncovered interest parity (UIP) fails unconditionally, UIP conditional on monetary policy actions remains a cornerstone of macroeconomic models used for monetary policy analysis. We posit that monetary policy actions are partially revealed by FOMC statements and propose a new identification strategy to uncover the degree to which such policy actions induce comovement in exchange rates and long-term interest rates consistent with uncovered interest parity. We reach three conclusions. First, there is evidence in favor of UIP at long horizons, conditional on monetary policy actions, for Dollar/Euro and Dollar/Yen exchange rates. Second, short-run movements in exchange rates following monetary policy surprises are consistent with the overshooting prediction of Dornbusch (1976), although our approach cannot test UIP at short horizons. Finally, we examine the degree to which monetary policy statements since the onset of the zero-lower bound (ZLB) on the short-term interest rate in the United States have engendered different comovement between long-term interest rates and exchange rates and find little evidence for a change in relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael T. Kiley, 2013. "Exchange rates, monetary policy statements, and uncovered interest parity: before and after the zero lower bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422 Elsevier.
    2. Michael T. Kiley, 2014. "The Aggregate Demand Effects of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 69-104, December.
    3. Carlo Rosa, 2012. "How "unconventional" are large-scale asset purchases? The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Staff Reports 560, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    5. Han Chen & Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 289-315, November.
    6. Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "The large scale asset purchases had large international effects," Working Papers 2010-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    8. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Shapiro, Matthew D., 2007. "Monetary policy when potential output is uncertain: Understanding the growth gamble of the 1990s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1132-1162, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anella Munro, 2014. "Exchange rates, expected returns and risk," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2014/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Forti Grazzini, Caterina & Rieth, Malte, 2017. "Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in Normal and Crisis Times," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168281, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Galina V. Kolev, 2015. "On the nature of shocks driving exchange rates in emerging economies," FIW Working Paper series 146, FIW.
    4. Diez, Federico J. & Presno, Ignacio, 2013. "Domestic and foreign announcements on unconventional monetary policy and exchange rates," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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