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Stochastic level shifts and outliers and the dynamics of oil price movements

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  • Trimbur, Thomas M.

Abstract

Oil prices clearly play an important role in the macroeconomy. The dynamics of oil prices have, however, been difficult to pin down because of the frequent occurrence of large shocks. In this paper, we propose a time series model with heavy-tailed disturbances to analyze the dynamics of the oil price. The model has the form of a generalized local linear trend, and we show that it successfully captures outliers and level shifts as empirical regularities in the oil price, including known historical price shocks. Further, the results of a forecast exercise are given, and we study extensions that examine the effect of the GDP cycle on the oil price.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 26 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 162-179

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:1:p:162-179
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

Keywords: Band-pass filter Cycle Non-Gaussian Robust signal extraction Trend estimation Unobserved components;

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  1. Neil Shephard & Jurgen Doornik & Siem Jan Koopman, 1998. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W06, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Harvey, A.C. & Trimbur, T.M. & van Dijk, H.K., 2005. "Trends and cycles in economic time series: A Bayesian approach," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  3. Barsky, Robert & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," CEPR Discussion Papers 4496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
  5. Thomas M. Trimbur, 2006. "Properties of higher order stochastic cycles," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, 01.
  6. Jushan Bai, 1995. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Working papers 95-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 193-213, May.
  8. Andrew C. Harvey & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2003. "General Model-Based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 244-255, May.
  9. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543.
  10. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
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Cited by:

  1. Tucker S. McElroy & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2012. "Signal extraction for nonstationary multivariate time series with illustrations for trend inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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