The role of financial investments in agricultural commodity derivatives markets
This paper investigates the relationship between futures prices and financial investments in derivatives of the main agricultural commodities. We first provide a broad picture of how these markets function and how they have evolved, showing that traders who deal mostly in commodity index investments (swap dealers) have gained importance since the mid-2000s. However, traditional financial market participants (money managers) still show the stronger (simultaneous) correlation with price movements. Our main empirical analysis aims to gauge the influence of financial investorsï¿½ positions on both the level and the volatility of futures prices. The Granger-causality tests suggest that speculative investments usually follow ï¿½ rather than precede - variations in futures returns. Employing a GARCH model, we find that the activity of money managers tends to be associated with lower volatility of futures returns, while that of swap dealers is sometimes followed by higher price variations.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Basak, Suleyman & Pavlova, Anna, 2012.
"Asset Prices and Institutional Investors,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
9120, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013.
"Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, 08.
- Hicks, Bruce & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Robe, Michel A., 2014. "Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-70.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- B. Wade Brorsen & Charles M. Oellermann & Paul L. Farris, 1989. "The live cattle futures market and daily cash price movements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 273-282, 08.
- Taylor, Gregory S. & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1974. "The Influence of Futures Trading on Cash Cattle Price Variations," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 01.
- Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2004.
"The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 573-594, June.
- Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-276, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
- Working, Holbrook, 1960. "Speculation on Hedging Markets," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 02, May.
- Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1979. "Futures markets, private storage, and price stabilization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 301-327, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_849_12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.