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Sectarian aid, sanctions and subnational development

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  • Arbatli, Cemal Eren
  • Gomtsyan, David

Abstract

Hezbollah, a Shia Islamist political party and militant group based in Lebanon, is believed to receive a significant amount of informal funding from Iran. In this paper, we evaluate whether this funding has had any economically meaningful effect on subnational development in Lebanon. Since the amount of funding is not observed, we use Iranian oil rents and the intensity of sanctions against Iran as plausibly exogenous drivers of transfers to Hezbollah. Then, we leverage the well-established sectarian bias in Hezbollah’s spending to obtain conservative estimates of the direct effect of funding to Hezbollah. Studying the 1993–2010 period, we find a positive and economically significant relationship between Iranian oil windfalls and nighttime lights. This effect is significantly stronger in areas with greater concentration of Shia population. Also, nighttime lights are relatively lower in Shia areas than elsewhere during periods when sanctions against Iran intensified. These novel results attest to the non-negligible developmental effects of informal aid as well as how economic sanctions against donors might offset such effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Arbatli, Cemal Eren & Gomtsyan, David, 2021. "Sectarian aid, sanctions and subnational development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:139:y:2021:i:c:s0014292121002063
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103891
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    1. John Gibson & Bonggeun Kim & Geua Boe-Gibson, 2022. "How effective are sanctions on North Korea? Popular DMSP night-lights data may bias evaluations due to blurring and poor low-light detection," Working Papers in Economics 22/06, University of Waikato, revised 14 Nov 2022.
    2. Bonggeun Kim & John Gibson & Geua Boe‐Gibson, 2024. "Measurement errors in popular night lights data may bias estimated impacts of economic sanctions: Evidence from closing the Kaesong Industrial Zone," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 375-389, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign aid; Religious sectarianism; Aid effectiveness; Economic sanctions; Subnational development; Middle east;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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