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A Monetary Business Cycle Model for India

Author

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  • Shesadri Banerjee

    (Madras Institute of Development Studies)

  • Parantap Basu

    (Durham University, Durham University Business School)

  • Chetan Ghate

    (Indian Statistical Institute)

  • Pawan Gopalakrishnan

    (Reserve Bank of India)

  • Sargam Gupta

    (Indian Statistical Institute)

Abstract

We build and calibrate a New Keynesian monetary business cycle model to theIndian economy to understand why the aggregate demand channel of monetary transmission is weak. Our main Önding is that base money shocks have a larger and more persistent effect on output than an interest rate shock, as in the data. We show that Önancial repression, in the form of a statutory liquidity ratio and administered interest rates, does not weaken monetary transmission. This is contrary to the consensus view in policy discussions on Indian monetary policy. We show that the presence of an informal sector hinders monetary transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Shesadri Banerjee & Parantap Basu & Chetan Ghate & Pawan Gopalakrishnan & Sargam Gupta, 2018. "A Monetary Business Cycle Model for India," CEMAP Working Papers 2018_01, Durham University Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:dur:cegapw:2018_01
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    2. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Identifying efficient policy mix under different targeting regimes: A tale of two crises," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 975-994.
    3. Dave Chetan & Ghate Chetan & Gopalakrishnan Pawan & Tarafdar Suchismita, 2021. "Fiscal austerity in emerging market economies," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(5), pages 365-391, December.
    4. Kshitiz Mishra & Partha Chatterjee, 2021. "Monetary Business Cycle Accounting Analysis of Indian Economy," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 471-491, September.
    5. Arpan Chakraborty & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2024. "Behavioral Expectations in New Keynesian DSGE Models: Evidence from India's COVID-19 Recovery and Vaccination Program," Papers 2411.17165, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    6. Kumar, Alok, 2023. "Financial market imperfections, informality and government spending multipliers," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    7. Ghate, Chetan & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Saha, Anuradha, 2025. "The Great Indian Savings Puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    8. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Ghosh, Saurabh & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Ranjan, Abhishek, 2022. "Technology shocks, banking sector policy, and the trade-off between firms and households," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 664-688.
    10. Nandi, Aurodeep, 2019. "Fiscal deficit targeting alongside flexible inflation targeting: India’s fiscal policy transmission," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-18.
    11. Shesadri Banerjee & Harendra Behera, 2023. "Financial frictions, bank intermediation and monetary policy transmission in India," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 749-785, July.
    12. Amrendra Pandey & Jagadish Shettigar & Amarnath Bose, 2021. "Evaluation of the Inflation Forecasting Process of the Reserve Bank of India: A Text Analysis Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    13. Ghosh, Saurabh & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Satija, Sakshi, 2019. "Recapitalization in an Economy with State-Owned Banks - A DSGE Framework," MPRA Paper 96981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kumar, Anshul, 2023. "A basic two-sector new Keynesian DSGE model of the Indian economy," MPRA Paper 115863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ahsan, Md Nazmul & Thakur, Sounak, 2024. "The great Indian demonetization and gender gap in health outcomes: Evidence from two Indian states," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    16. Chikonda, Mtendere Chilolo & Chortareas, Georgios, 2024. "Informality, rule-of-thumb consumers, and the effectiveness of monetary policy in emerging economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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