Analysis of the Labour Market in Bulgaria through a Error Correction Model
The study examines the problems of developing and evaluating a econometric tools for analysis of the labour market in Bulgaria. Applied is an error correction model and a cointegrational analysis to evaluate the main interactions between labour market parameters for the period 1991-2006. In the model are included and examined the most important indexes that characterize the functioning of the labour market (unemployment, employment, wages, productivity of labour and inflation). Through the evaluated restricted version of a vector autoregression model and decomposition of errors is determined the impact of main shocks by the aggregate supply and demand, inflation, wages and technological changes in the prognosis of the evaluated variables. The evaluated model is stable and adequate. The results show that decrease in the level of unemployment is possible only in the presence of positive shocks by the aggregate supply.
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Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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- Ralf Brüggemann, 2006.
"Sources of German unemployment: a structural vector error correction analysis,"
Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 409-431, June.
- Brüggemann, Ralf, 2001. "Sources of German unemployment: A structural vector error correction analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,19, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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- Katarina Juselius & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," Discussion Papers 00-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
- Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 379-404, April.
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