IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2408.13214.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

EUR-USD Exchange Rate Forecasting Based on Information Fusion with Large Language Models and Deep Learning Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Hongcheng Ding
  • Xuanze Zhao
  • Zixiao Jiang
  • Shamsul Nahar Abdullah
  • Deshinta Arrova Dewi

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of the EUR/USD exchange rate is crucial for investors, businesses, and policymakers. This paper proposes a novel framework, IUS, that integrates unstructured textual data from news and analysis with structured data on exchange rates and financial indicators to enhance exchange rate prediction. The IUS framework employs large language models for sentiment polarity scoring and exchange rate movement classification of texts. These textual features are combined with quantitative features and input into a Causality-Driven Feature Generator. An Optuna-optimized Bi-LSTM model is then used to forecast the EUR/USD exchange rate. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms benchmark models, reducing MAE by 10.69% and RMSE by 9.56% compared to the best performing baseline. Results also show the benefits of data fusion, with the combination of unstructured and structured data yielding higher accuracy than structured data alone. Furthermore, feature selection using the top 12 important quantitative features combined with the textual features proves most effective. The proposed IUS framework and Optuna-Bi-LSTM model provide a powerful new approach for exchange rate forecasting through multi-source data integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongcheng Ding & Xuanze Zhao & Zixiao Jiang & Shamsul Nahar Abdullah & Deshinta Arrova Dewi, 2024. "EUR-USD Exchange Rate Forecasting Based on Information Fusion with Large Language Models and Deep Learning Methods," Papers 2408.13214, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2408.13214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.13214
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qingsong Ruan & Jiarui Zhang & Dayong Lv, 2024. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility: is economic policy uncertainty better?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(13), pages 1526-1544, March.
    2. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
    3. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
    4. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia & Zhang, Yi, 2019. "Exchange rate prediction redux: New models, new data, new currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 332-362.
    6. Zhiyuan Pan & Yudong Wang & Li Liu & Qing Wang, 2019. "Improving volatility prediction and option valuation using VIX information: A volatility spillover GARCH model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 744-776, June.
    7. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
    8. Eleni Kalamara & Arthur Turrell & Chris Redl & George Kapetanios & Sujit Kapadia, 2022. "Making text count: Economic forecasting using newspaper text," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 896-919, August.
    9. Colombo, Emilio & Pelagatti, Matteo, 2020. "Statistical learning and exchange rate forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1260-1289.
    10. Aaron Tornell & Chunming Yuan, 2012. "Speculation and hedging in the currency futures markets: Are they informative to the spot exchange rates," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 122-151, February.
    11. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Walid Ben Omrane & Robert Welch & Xinyao Zhou, 2020. "The dynamic effect of macroeconomic news on the euro/US dollar exchange rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 84-103, January.
    13. Engel, Charles & Wu, Steve Pak Yeung, 2023. "Forecasting the U.S. Dollar in the 21st Century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    14. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    15. Victoria Ivashina & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 2015. "Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1241-1281.
    16. Andreou, Elena & Matsi, Maria & Savvides, Andreas, 2013. "Stock and foreign exchange market linkages in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 248-268.
    17. Tonzer, Lena, 2015. "Cross-border interbank networks, banking risk and contagion," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 19-32.
    18. Tsai, I-Chun, 2012. "The relationship between stock price index and exchange rate in Asian markets: A quantile regression approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 609-621.
    19. Takumi Ito & Fumiko Takeda, 2022. "Do sentiment indices always improve the prediction accuracy of exchange rates?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 840-852, July.
    20. Naderi Semiromi, Hamed & Lessmann, Stefan & Peters, Wiebke, 2020. "News will tell: Forecasting foreign exchange rates based on news story events in the economy calendar," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    21. Kazım Berk Küçüklerli & Veysel Ulusoy, 2024. "Sentiment-Driven Exchange Rate Forecasting: Integrating Twitter Analysis with Economic Indicators," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 14(3), pages 1-4.
    22. Wenxin Du & Alexander Tepper & Adrien Verdelhan, 2018. "Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 915-957, June.
    23. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    24. Jonathan Felix Pfahler, 2021. "Exchange Rate Forecasting with Advanced Machine Learning Methods," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    25. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Kedan, Danielle & Tietz, Robin Darius, 2018. "Measuring fragmentation in the euro area unsecured overnight interbank money market," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    26. Li, Xuerong & Shang, Wei & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Text-based crude oil price forecasting: A deep learning approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1548-1560.
    27. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    28. Kenneth A. Tah & Geoffrey Ngene, 2021. "Dynamic linkages between US and Eurodollar interest rates: new evidence from causality in quantiles," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 200-210, January.
    29. Zhang, Hui Jun & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Galbraith, John W., 2016. "Exchange rates and commodity prices: Measuring causality at multiple horizons," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 100-120.
    30. Bolin Lei & Boyu Zhang & Yuping Song, 2021. "Volatility Forecasting for High-Frequency Financial Data Based on Web Search Index and Deep Learning Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, February.
    31. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
    32. Moore, Tomoe & Wang, Ping, 2014. "Dynamic linkage between real exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from developed and emerging Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-11.
    33. Lin, Chien-Hsiu, 2012. "The comovement between exchange rates and stock prices in the Asian emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 161-172.
    34. John Cairns & Corrinne Ho & Robert McCauley, 2007. "Exchange rates and global volatility: implications for Asia-Pacific currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    35. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates: A non-linear smooth-transition approach," EcoMod2016 9226, EcoMod.
    36. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Fok, Robert Chi-Wing & Liu, Y. Angela, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from East Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-520.
    37. Sjaastad, Larry A., 2008. "The price of gold and the exchange rates: Once again," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 118-124, June.
    38. Zexin Hu & Yiqi Zhao & Matloob Khushi, 2021. "A Survey of Forex and Stock Price Prediction Using Deep Learning," Papers 2103.09750, arXiv.org.
    39. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2012. "Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1098-1104.
    40. Darrell Duffie & Jeremy C. Stein, 2015. "Reforming LIBOR and Other Financial Market Benchmarks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 191-212, Spring.
    41. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Nguyen, Viet Hoang & Shin, Yongcheol, 2021. "Measuring the Connectedness of the Global Economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 899-919.
    42. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
    43. Lateef Olawale Akanni, 2020. "Returns and volatility spillover between food prices and exchange rate in Nigeria," Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(3), pages 307-325, May.
    44. Martina Cecioni, 2018. "ECB monetary policy and the euro exchange rate," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1172, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    45. Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Roll, Richard, 2011. "Gold and the Dollar (and the Euro, Pound, and Yen)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2070-2083, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wang, Wenhao, 2022. "Uncovered interest rate parity redux: Non-uniform effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-151.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. David Alaminos & M. Belén Salas & Manuel Á. Fernández-Gámez, 2023. "Quantum Monte Carlo simulations for estimating FOREX markets: a speculative attacks experience," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Joscha Beckmann & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Rainer Alexander Schüssler, 2020. "Exchange rate predictability and dynamic Bayesian learning," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 410-421, June.
    7. Liu, Li & Tan, Siming & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Can commodity prices forecast exchange rates?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    8. Piotr Dybka, 2020. "One model or many? Exchange rates determinants and their predictive capabilities," KAE Working Papers 2020-053, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    9. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The behavior of exchange rate and stock returns in high and low interest rate environments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 138-149.
    10. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    11. Breen, John David & Hu, Liang, 2021. "The predictive content of oil price and volatility: New evidence on exchange rate forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    12. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2020. "The foreign exchange and stock market nexus: New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 240-266.
    13. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Peichu Xie, 2020. "The Non-U.S. Bank Demand for U.S. Dollar Assets," IMF Working Papers 2020/101, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Feng, Wenjun & Zhang, Zhengjun, 2023. "Currency exchange rate predictability: The new power of Bitcoin prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    15. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability in emerging markets: Fundamentals versus technical analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-263.
    16. Matthieu Bussière & Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2022. "The New Fama Puzzle," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 451-486, September.
    17. Joseph Agyapong, 2021. "Application of Taylor Rule Fundamentals in Forecasting Exchange Rates," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-27, June.
    18. Hai Long Vo & Duc Hong Vo, 2023. "The purchasing power parity and exchange‐rate economics half a century on," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 446-479, April.
    19. Chang, Hao-Wen & Lin, Chinho, 2023. "Currency portfolio behavior in seven major Asian markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 540-559.
    20. Pincheira-Brown, Pablo & Neumann, Federico, 2020. "Can we beat the Random Walk? The case of survey-based exchange rate forecasts in Chile," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2408.13214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.