IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/obuest/v84y2022i5p1077-1100.html

Estimating Nonlinear Business Cycle Mechanisms with Linear Vector Autoregressions: A Monte Carlo Study

Author

Listed:
  • Karsten Kohler
  • Robert Calvert Jump

Abstract

The paper investigates how well linear vector autoregressions (VARs) identify endogenous cycle mechanisms and cycle frequencies when the underlying process is a nonlinear limit cycle. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations with five nonlinear models in which cycles are driven by the interaction of two state variables. We find that while linear VARs quantitatively underestimate the strength of the interaction mechanism, they successfully identify the qualitative presence of a cycle mechanism in most cases (55%–100%). Our results further suggest that linear VARs are surprisingly successful at estimating cycle frequencies of nonlinear processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Karsten Kohler & Robert Calvert Jump, 2022. "Estimating Nonlinear Business Cycle Mechanisms with Linear Vector Autoregressions: A Monte Carlo Study," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1077-1100, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:84:y:2022:i:5:p:1077-1100
    DOI: 10.1111/obes.12498
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12498
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/obes.12498?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 21-44.
    2. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2019. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 568-591.
    3. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2010. "Dynamic predictor selection in a new Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1492-1508, August.
    4. Paul Beaudry & Dana Galizia & Franck Portier, 2020. "Putting the Cycle Back into Business Cycle Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(1), pages 1-47, January.
    5. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Wegener, Michael & Westerhoff, Frank & Zaklan, Georg, 2009. "A Metzlerian business cycle model with nonlinear heterogeneous expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 715-720, May.
    7. Jordi Galí, 2018. "The State of New Keynesian Economics: A Partial Assessment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 87-112, Summer.
    8. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    9. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Roberto Dieci & Frank Westerhoff, 2012. "A simple model of a speculative housing market," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 303-329, April.
    11. Jurgen A. Doornik & Bent Nielsen & Thomas J. Rothenberg, 2003. "The Influence of Var Dimensions on Estimator Biases: Comment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 377-383, January.
    12. Jump, Robert Calvert & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Behavioural New Keynesian models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 59-77.
    13. Kilian,Lutz & Lütkepohl,Helmut, 2018. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107196575, August.
    14. Beneš, Jaromí­r & Vávra, David, 2005. "Eigenvalue filtering in VAR models with application to the Czech business cycle," Working Paper Series 549, European Central Bank.
    15. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten & Cavallero, Julian, 2019. "Short and medium term financial-real cycles: An empirical assessment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 81-96.
    16. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    17. Karim M. Abadir & Kaddour Hadri & Elias Tzavalis, 1999. "The Influence of VAR Dimensions on Estimator Biases," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 163-182, January.
    18. Paul Beaudry & Dana Galizia & Franck Portier, 2017. "Is the Macroeconomy Locally Unstable and Why Should We Care?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 479-530.
    19. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Domenico delli Gatti & Filippo Gusella & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2025. "Regime Changes and Real-Financial Cycles: Searching Minsky's Hypothesis in a Nonlinear Setting," Papers 2511.04348, arXiv.org.
    2. Sordi, Serena & Naimzada, Ahmad & Davila-Fernandez, Marwil J., 2025. "A dynamic model of real-financial markets interaction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis, 2023. "Debt-GDP cycles in historical perspective: the case of the USA (1889–2014)," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 317-335.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Calvert Jump & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2023. "Building blocks of a heterodox business cycle theory," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 334-358, April.
    2. Karsten Kohler & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2023. "Flexible exchange rates in emerging markets: shock absorbers or drivers of endogenous cycles?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 551-572.
    3. Friedrich Lucke, 2022. "The Great Moderation and the Financial Cycle," Working Papers REM 2022/0238, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Karsten Kohler & Benjamin Tippet & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2023. "House price cycles, housing systems, and growth models," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 461-490, December.
    5. Filippo Gusella & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2021. "Testing fundamentalist–momentum trader financial cycles: An empirical analysis via the Kalman filter," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 758-797, November.
    6. Noemi Schmitt & Frank Westerhoff, 2022. "Speculative housing markets and rent control: insights from nonlinear economic dynamics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 141-163, January.
    7. Gallo, Ettore, 2025. "Reduction of CO2 emissions, climate damage and the persistence of business cycles: A model of (de)coupling," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 725-737.
    8. Ling Zhang & Wenlong Bian & Hao Zhang, 2019. "Dissecting the myth of the house price in Chinese metropolises: allowing for behavioral heterogeneity among investors," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(4), pages 721-740, December.
    9. Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2018. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Finance," Research Paper Series 389, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis & Rob Calvert Jump, 2019. "Debt-driven business cycles in historical perspective: The cases of the USA (1889-2015) and UK (1882-2010)," Working Papers PKWP1907, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    11. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    12. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.
    13. Neri, Stefano & Gerali, Andrea, 2019. "Natural rates across the Atlantic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Ilias Tsiakas & Haibin Zhang, 2023. "On the Direction of Causality between Business and Financial Cycles," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-26, September.
    15. Till Strohsal & Christian R. Proaño & Jürgen Wolters, 2019. "Assessing the cross-country interaction of financial cycles: evidence from a multivariate spectral analysis of the USA and the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 385-398, August.
    16. Klein, Paul-Olivier & Turk-Ariss, Rima, 2022. "Bank capital and economic activity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2020. "Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle," Staff Working Papers 20-25, Bank of Canada.
    18. Yannis Dafermos & Daniela Gabor & Jo Michell, 2023. "Institutional supercycles: an evolutionary macro-finance approach," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 693-712, September.
    19. Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2023. "Global financial cycles since 1880," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    20. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten & Cavallero, Julian, 2019. "Short and medium term financial-real cycles: An empirical assessment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 81-96.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:84:y:2022:i:5:p:1077-1100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.