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Rational vs. irrational beliefs in a complex world

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  • Böhl, Gregor
  • Hommes, Cars H.

Abstract

Can boundedly rational agents survive competition with fully rational agents? The authors develop a highly nonlinear heterogeneous agents model with rational forward looking versus boundedly rational backward looking agents and evolving market shares depending on their relative performance. Their novel numerical solution method detects equilibrium paths characterized by complex bubble and crash dynamics. Boundedly rational trend-extrapolators amplify small deviations from fundamentals, while rational agents anticipate market crashes after large bubbles and drive prices back close to fundamental value. Overall rational and non-rational beliefs co-evolve over time, with time-varying impact, and their interaction produces complex endogenous bubble and crashes, without any exogenous shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Böhl, Gregor & Hommes, Cars H., 2021. "Rational vs. irrational beliefs in a complex world," IMFS Working Paper Series 156, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:156
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    Cited by:

    1. Boehl, Gregor, 2022. "Monetary policy and speculative asset markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneous agents; trend-extrapolation; bubbles; numerical solution method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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